Introduction — Purpose of This White Paper
This is Hamamoto from TIMEWELL.
TIMEWELL provides import/export control services for global supply chains. The risk of cutting-edge technology being inadvertently diverted to military use has become an issue that cannot be ignored for both international trade and national security. This white paper was created to comprehensively analyze how AI and other advanced technologies are being used in the military domain, what impact they have on the global balance of power and our daily lives, and to serve as a reference for businesses seeking to understand geopolitical risks.
Chapter 1: Introduction — The Paradigm Shift in Warfare
1-1. Redefining AI and the Military
When discussing "AI and the military" today, many people might envision drones autonomously flying and attacking targets, or robot soldiers from science fiction films. But the essence goes well beyond simply automating and autonomizing weapons. The transformation that artificial intelligence (AI) brings to the military is a paradigm shift in intelligence itself — one that shakes every domain of security to its foundations: national decision-making, intelligence analysis, strategic planning, logistics, cyber defense, and even public perception.
AI can instantaneously analyze vast volumes of data that no human could possibly process, predict the future course of a battle, and present the most probable options. It can complete in minutes what once took a general staff weeks of operational planning, detect subtle indicators that skilled pilots would miss, and neutralize enemy cyberattacks in real time. AI has arrived not as an "automation" tool replacing the limbs of soldiers, but as a "new intelligence" that extends the mind of commanders and transforms national decision-making itself. It is no exaggeration to say that those who master this intelligence will master interstate competition in the 21st century.
1-2. Structure of This White Paper
This white paper begins by reviewing Japan's military strategic history from the Kamakura samurai to the prewar intelligence state (Chapter 2), then surveys the wisdom of classical military strategy from Sun Tzu to Clausewitz (Chapter 3). It goes on to cover the history of nuclear weapons and cutting-edge technology (Chapter 4), the generational evolution of fighter aircraft (Chapter 5), and key military technologies across land, sea, and air (Chapter 6), before clarifying how the modern balance of power between the U.S., China, and Russia has shifted, and how China is using AI to strengthen its military (Chapter 7). The paper then details how modern warfare has transformed into "hybrid warfare" (Chapter 8), the tension between AI companies and the state (Chapter 9), the new threats of cyber and cognitive warfare (Chapter 10), directed energy weapons and covert operations (Chapter 11), fully autonomous weapons and robot soldiers (Chapter 12), AI military simulation technology (Chapter 13), and the militarization of space (Chapter 14). Finally, it analyzes energy security and the contest for power dominance (Chapter 15), and concludes with strategic recommendations indispensable for protecting Japan's national interests (Chapter 16).
Chapter 2: Japan's Military Strategic History — From Kamakura Samurai to the Intelligence State
2-1. Kamakura Samurai and the "Way of Bow and Horse"
Tracing the roots of Japan's military strategy leads to the warrior class established in the late Heian period through the Kamakura period. Kamakura samurai in particular were known for their austere spirit and high combat skills, with mounted archery — the "way of bow and horse" — at the center of their fighting art. The precision with which they could shoot from horseback represented years of training and individual martial excellence. During the Mongol invasions of the late 13th century, Kamakura samurai struggled against Mongol forces using massed combat formations and explosive "tetsuhau" weapons. This experience — Japan's first large-scale foreign war — became the occasion for recognizing the importance of organized combat, not just individual valor.
2-2. The Information Warfare and Ninja of the Warring States Period
The approximately 150 years of the Warring States period following the Onin War was the era in which information warfare was most developed in Japanese history. Each lord maintained specialist groups to collect intelligence and devise stratagems — the most representative being the "ninja." Based in Iga (Mie Prefecture) and Koka (Shiga Prefecture), these operatives were skilled in disguise, infiltration, fire techniques, and psychological warfare. They infiltrated enemy castles to steal information, and at times carried out assassinations and sabotage. Takeda Shingen's "three-person agents," the Hojo clan's "Fuma party," and others waged information warfare using their own intelligence networks. This era fostered the widespread understanding that "eight-tenths of victory or defeat is decided before battle begins" — that information is paramount.
2-3. Prewar Geopolitical Research and Global Intelligence Operations
After the Meiji Restoration, as Japan pursued "wealth and military power" to stand alongside the Western powers, it also awoke to the importance of modern intelligence operations. The Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905) was a landmark event in which Japanese intelligence activities had a major impact on world history. Colonel Motojiro Akashi, then military attaché at the Japanese legation in Russia, used a massive operational fund equivalent to roughly 1% of the national budget to support anti-government forces and revolutionaries within Russia, successfully disrupting the country from within and undermining its ability to continue the war. This "Akashi Operation" is credited with making a major contribution to Japan's victory.
Prewar Japan also actively studied geopolitics — a discipline born in Germany — as an important field for thinking about national strategy. Scholars such as Sadashige Komaki at Kyoto Imperial University advocated a "Japanese geopolitics" based on Japan's geographical characteristics and historical mission, which became one of the theoretical pillars of the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" concept. The Imperial Army School (Nakano) taught not only espionage and sabotage techniques but also geopolitics as a required subject, with graduates operating worldwide in intelligence collection and covert operations.
Chapter 3: The Wisdom of Classical Military Strategy — From Sun Tzu to Clausewitz
The history of war is the history of humanity itself, and the military strategies and philosophies cultivated within it have determined the rise and fall of nations across the ages. To understand the revolutionary changes that AI is bringing to the military sphere, one must first survey the core of classical military thought and understand how it connects to the present.
※ This chapter provides an overview of global classical military thought as a companion to Chapter 2 on Japan's military strategic history.
3-1. Sun Tzu's Art of War — Intelligence and Stratagem for Winning Without Fighting
The Art of War, born in ancient China's Spring and Autumn period roughly 2,500 years ago, is the world's oldest and most influential military treatise. Said to be authored by Sun Wu, the thirteen chapters treat war not as a simple clash of force, but as a complex phenomenon entangled with politics, economics, diplomacy, geography, and psychology.
The core of Sun Tzu's thought is the ideal of non-warfare: "To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill." Armed conflict is a last resort; the highest achievement is to frustrate the enemy's intentions through diplomacy and stratagem and claim victory without battle. Essential to this is "intelligence." The famous line — "Know yourself and know your enemy, and in a hundred battles you will never be defeated" — emphasizes the importance of accurately grasping the realities of both sides and formulating plans based on careful analysis. Sun Tzu also states that "all warfare is deception," explaining the effectiveness of deception, surprise, and diversionary tactics in seizing initiative and confusing the enemy.
AI technology holds the potential to realize Sun Tzu's ideals at an unprecedented level. AI's high-speed analysis of massive datasets becomes a powerful tool for "knowing yourself and knowing your enemy," enabling instant identification of enemy weaknesses and intentions. AI-generated disinformation and automated cyberattacks become the means of executing "deception" at greater sophistication and scale. AI is the technology that resurrects Sun Tzu's art of war for the modern age, spanning 2,500 years.
3-2. Napoleon's Military Revolution — The Birth of Conscription and Total War
Napoleon Bonaparte, who emerged from the turmoil of the French Revolution, swept across all of Europe through his military genius. His strategies overturned the conventions of the limited wars of the monarchical era and opened the door to modern warfare.
Napoleon's strength rested on three revolutionary elements. First, the conscript army that the French Revolution produced — this enabled the formation of large national armies burning with patriotism, overwhelming traditional mercenary forces in sheer numbers. Second, the creation of the corps system: each corps was a self-contained mini-army with infantry, cavalry, and artillery, enabling large forces to maneuver flexibly and rapidly. Third, exploiting this mobility through interior lines and concentration of force: attacking enemies separately when surrounded, and concentrating overwhelming force at the decisive point of battle to annihilate the enemy main force.
In the AI age, the principles of mobility and concentration of force that Napoleon pursued undergo further evolution. AI analyzes an infinite number of variables — battlefield conditions, logistics, enemy dispositions — in real time, calculating optimal movement routes and attack timing. AI autonomously operating formations of drones and unmanned weapons, concentrating force at the most vulnerable point in the enemy's defenses at the optimal moment — precisely the tactics Napoleon envisioned — are being realized through AI.
3-3. Clausewitz's On War — The Unchanging Relationship Between War and Politics
Prussian soldier Carl von Clausewitz, drawing on his experience of the Napoleonic Wars, produced in On War an enduring work of profound philosophical insight into the nature of war.
On War's most famous proposition is: "War is the continuation of politics by other means." This shows that war does not exist for its own sake but is always an instrument for achieving political purposes. Clausewitz also explained the nature of war as a "strange trinity": ① the blind passions of "hatred and animosity" in the people; ② the "play of chance and probability" in the commander and army; and ③ the "reason" of the government as a political tool. He also introduced the concept of "friction" — referring to all the unexpected obstacles that arise between plan and execution (bad weather, intelligence errors, troop fatigue) — arguing this is the fundamental reason why real wars do not proceed according to theory.
Even with AI introduced into warfare, Clausewitz's fundamental principle that "war is a political instrument" remains unshaken. However, if the speed of AI decision-making outpaces the cycle of human political judgment, the risk emerges of "flash war" — war that politics can no longer control. While AI may reduce "friction," it also creates new AI-era friction: cyberattacks on AI systems, algorithmic flaws, and the "black box problem" of AI taking unpredictable actions.
3-4. Mahan's Theory of Sea Power — He Who Controls the Seas Controls the World
American naval officer Alfred Thayer Mahan, in his The Influence of Sea Power upon History (1890), argued that the rise and fall of nations throughout history has depended on "sea power," laying the foundations of geopolitics.
Mahan argued that the ocean is a vast highway connecting the world, and that controlling it (command of the sea) is indispensable for protecting commerce and national prosperity. He identified six elements for a nation to establish sea power: geographical position, physical conformation, extent of territory, population, national character, and character of the government. Mahan's theory profoundly influenced American leaders of the time, including President Theodore Roosevelt, and helped turn the United States toward becoming a great naval power.
In the modern world, over 90% of global trade depends on maritime transport, and the importance of sea power remains unchanged. AI technology transforms competition over sea power. AI-equipped unmanned surface vessels (USV) and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV) dramatically enhance the capability to monitor vast oceans around the clock and detect and track enemy submarines and ships. One could say that "AI capability" has become the seventh element in Mahan's framework for sea power.
3-5. Lessons for the AI Age from Classical Military Thought
Sun Tzu's information warfare, Napoleon's war of maneuver, Clausewitz's relationship between politics and war, Mahan's command of the sea. Viewed through the new lens of AI, these classical military philosophies reveal their enduring value and the ways they evolve with the times.
| Classical Thinker | Core Principle | Significance in the AI Age |
|---|---|---|
| Sun Tzu | Information superiority, non-warfare, deception | Theoretical basis for AI big data analysis, cyber and cognitive warfare |
| Napoleon | Mobility, concentration of force, total war | Hyper-fast maneuver and optimal force deployment by AI autonomous weapon swarms |
| Clausewitz | War as political instrument, friction | Risk of AI runaway (flash war) and new forms of "friction" |
| Mahan | Sea power, command of the sea | Maritime dominance by AI-equipped unmanned vessels; "AI capability" as an added element |
What these philosophies teach us is this: however much technology advances, the nature of war — information, maneuver, political purpose, and control of domains — does not change. AI becomes the means to maximize and realize these classical principles; but it simultaneously poses risks of conflicts escalating beyond human control, and raises profound ethical questions.
Chapter 4: The History and Cutting Edge of Nuclear Weapons — The Apex of Destruction and the Logic of Deterrence
4-1. The Manhattan Project to Hiroshima and Nagasaki
In 1942, during World War II, the United States launched the top-secret Manhattan Project out of concern about Nazi Germany's nuclear weapons development. Centered at Los Alamos National Laboratory, many brilliant scientists were mobilized. On July 16, 1945, the world's first nuclear test (Trinity) succeeded in New Mexico. On August 6, the uranium bomb "Little Boy" was dropped on Hiroshima, and on August 9, the plutonium bomb "Fat Man" on Nagasaki. Both cities suffered catastrophic destruction and hundreds of thousands of lives were lost. These two wartime uses demonstrated the inhumanity of nuclear weapons to the world and signaled the dawn of a new era defined by their overwhelming destructive power.
4-2. The Cold War and Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
The atomic bombings shocked the Soviet Union, and Stalin accelerated his nuclear program. In August 1949, the USSR achieved its first nuclear test, ending America's nuclear monopoly. Both superpowers then entered an era of nuclear arms racing, developing and deploying ever more powerful nuclear weapons while stoking mutual fear and mistrust.
As the race progressed, both sides gained the ability to absorb an enemy first strike and deliver a certain retaliatory attack (second-strike capability). This created the situation: "If one side uses nuclear weapons, the other's retaliation destroys both — there is no victor." This theory, Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), paradoxically played a role in deterring nuclear war. During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the world stood at the brink, but the logic of MAD ultimately guided both leaders toward restraint.
4-3. The NPT and Current Nuclear Arsenals
Increasing numbers of nuclear states would dramatically elevate the risk of nuclear war. From this concern, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was adopted in 1968 and entered into force in 1970. The NPT recognizes five states — the U.S., Russia (USSR), UK, France, and China — as nuclear-weapon states, prohibits all other states from acquiring nuclear weapons, and obliges the recognized states to pursue good-faith negotiations on disarmament.
As of 2024, beyond the NPT-recognized five, India, Pakistan, and North Korea have declared possession of nuclear weapons, while Israel's possession is considered virtually certain. The total global stockpile is estimated at over approximately 12,000 warheads, though the trend is declining.
| Country | Total stockpile (estimated) | Deployed (estimated) |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 4,309 | 1,718 |
| United States | 3,700 | 1,770 |
| China | 600 | 24 |
| France | 290 | 280 |
| United Kingdom | 225 | 120 |
| Pakistan | 170 | 0 |
| India | 172 | 0 |
| Israel | 90 | 0 |
| North Korea | 50 | 0 |
Source: Federation of American Scientists (FAS) 2024 estimates
China's trajectory deserves particular attention. Having long proclaimed a policy of "minimum deterrence," China has in recent years been rapidly increasing its nuclear warhead count and expanding its silo infrastructure — though its intentions remain largely opaque.
4-4. New Trends in Nuclear Weapons Technology
Since the end of the Cold War, even as nuclear disarmament has proceeded, the modernization of nuclear weapons and development of new technologies has accelerated.
Hypersonic weapons: Flying at Mach 5 or above on irregular low-altitude trajectories, "hypersonic weapons" are extremely difficult to detect and intercept with current missile defense systems. Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), which separate from ballistic missiles and glide to their targets, are under intensive development by the U.S., China, and Russia.
Small tactical nuclear weapons: The development of "small tactical nuclear weapons" with limited explosive yields, intended for use in limited conflicts, is also progressing. This lowers the threshold for nuclear use, making them potentially "usable" weapons that could trigger escalation. Russia in particular is known to emphasize an "escalate to de-escalate" strategy that includes tactical nuclear options.
Nuclear fusion weapons research: Fusion weapons exemplified by the hydrogen bomb possess incomparably greater destructive power than atomic bombs. Nations maintain and enhance weapon performance through simulation technology, and applications of fusion research to weapons development have also been noted.
4-5. North Korea and Iran's Nuclear Development
Outside the NPT framework, nuclear development by North Korea and Iran has become an urgent international concern. North Korea withdrew from the NPT and has conducted multiple nuclear tests, repeatedly launching ballistic missile tests and advancing ICBM development capable of reaching the continental United States. Iran reached a nuclear agreement (JCPOA) with six nations in 2015, but the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018, and Iran subsequently raised its uranium enrichment levels, reigniting concerns about nuclear weapons development.
Chapter 5: The Evolution of Fighter Aircraft — From Generation 1 to Generation 6 and the AI Pilot
5-1. Generational Evolution of Jet Fighters
Fighter aircraft, as the centerpiece of airpower, have been developed to embody the cutting edge of technology of their era. The evolution of jet fighters is organized by generation.
Generation 1 (1950s): Subsonic jets. Korea saw the first jet-versus-jet aerial combat. Representative aircraft: F-86 Sabre, MiG-15.
Generation 2 (1950s onward): Achieved supersonic flight, began carrying radar and air-to-air missiles. Combat shifted to beyond visual range (BVR). Representative aircraft: F-4 Phantom II, MiG-21.
Generation 3 (1960s onward): Under the doctrine of missile supremacy, emphasized missile armament over maneuverability. However, Vietnam War experience led to a re-evaluation of close-in dogfighting.
Generation 4 (1970s onward): Designed with high maneuverability as a priority. Characterized by high-thrust engines, high mobility, and advanced fly-by-wire flight control systems. Representative aircraft: F-15 Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, Su-27 Flanker.
Generation 5 (2000s onward): The defining characteristic is stealth. By carefully shaping airframes and using radar-absorbent materials, radar cross-section (RCS) is dramatically reduced. Realizes "First Look, First Shot, First Kill." Representative aircraft: F-22 Raptor, F-35 Lightning II, Su-57, J-20.
| Generation | Era | Main characteristics | Representative aircraft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1950s | Subsonic jets | F-86, MiG-15 |
| 2nd | 1950s onward | Supersonic, missile-armed | F-4, MiG-21 |
| 3rd | 1960s onward | Missile emphasis | F-104, MiG-23 |
| 4th | 1970s onward | Maneuverability emphasis, fly-by-wire | F-15, F-16, Su-27 |
| 4.5th | 1990s onward | AESA, limited stealth | Rafale, Typhoon |
| 5th | 2000s onward | Stealth, sensor fusion | F-22, F-35, J-20 |
5-2. The Competition to Develop 6th-Generation Fighters
Currently, competition to develop 6th-generation fighters is intensifying worldwide. Common concepts for 6th-generation aircraft include stealth surpassing 5th-generation, AI utilization, manned-unmanned teaming, and adaptation to network-centric warfare.
NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance): The U.S. program for next-generation air dominance, featuring a "System of Systems" concept pairing crewed fighters with accompanying Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) unmanned fighters.
GCAP (Global Combat Air Programme): A joint development program by Japan, the UK, and Italy, integrating Japan's F-X and the UK's Tempest programs, targeting initial deployment in 2035.
FCAS (Future Combat Air System): A joint development program by France, Germany, and Spain.
5-3. The Birth of the AI Pilot — DARPA ACE Program
DARPA's ACE (Air Combat Evolution) program is researching the automation of aerial combat through AI. In 2020, in simulations, AI overwhelmed experienced pilots. In 2023, the AI-equipped experimental aircraft X-62A succeeded in a simulated aerial dogfight against a manned F-16.
Looking ahead, a paradigm may emerge where pilots act as battle commanders, directing multiple AI-piloted unmanned aircraft into combat. Unmanned combat aircraft liberated from the physical limits that human pilots experience — G-forces — can achieve maneuvers that surpass crewed aircraft, fundamentally transforming the nature of aerial warfare.
Chapter 6: Key Military Technologies Across Land, Sea, and Air — The Platforms of Modern Warfare
6-1. Key Technologies on Land
Evolution of main battle tanks (MBT): Tanks, born to break the trench deadlock of World War I, became the stars of blitzkrieg in World War II. Current Generation 3.5 tanks (M1A2 SEP, Type 10, etc.) emphasize network capability and urban warfare performance. Latest technologies include Active Protection Systems (APS) that physically intercept incoming missiles, unmanned turrets (Russia's T-14 Armata) that enhance crew safety, and AI-based threat assessment and automatic target tracking.
Revolution in artillery: The introduction of guided rounds (Excalibur) and guided rockets (GMLRS) has extended range to tens of kilometers or more and enabled pinpoint strikes. Ukraine's HIMARS became iconic. "Sensor-to-shooter" systems that integrate AI with numerous sensor feeds to automate the process from target detection to attack are under development.
Anti-tank missile threats: As proven in Ukraine, advanced infantry anti-tank missiles like Javelin and NLAW — which can attack thin top armor from above — represent serious threats to main battle tanks.
6-2. Key Technologies at Sea
Carrier strike groups: The U.S. maintains 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, projecting power worldwide. The latest Gerald R. Ford-class carriers feature electromagnetic catapults (EMALS) and F-35C stealth fighter capability. China's third carrier with electromagnetic catapults, the Fujian, is in sea trials.
Nuclear submarines: Divided into nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) carrying a nation's ultimate nuclear retaliatory capability, and attack submarines (SSN). The Virginia-class (U.S.) and Yasen-class (Russia) are considered world-class. Japan's U.S.-Australia-UK (AUKUS) connection also deserves attention.
Aegis system: The integrated air defense system developed to counter Soviet saturation anti-ship missile attacks. Combined with SM-3 interceptor missiles, it provides ballistic missile defense (BMD) capability. Japan operates eight Aegis destroyers as the backbone of its missile defense.
Unmanned Surface Vessels (USV) and Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV): Research is progressing on swarms of multiple USVs/UUVs coordinating for wide-area reconnaissance and saturation attacks. Fully autonomous unmanned fleets patrolling the oceans may become reality in the future.
6-3. Key Technologies in the Air
AWACS: As "flying command posts," AWACS manage friendly fighter aircraft and provide overall situational awareness of the battle area. Japan operates E-767 and E-2D Hawkeye aircraft, making it one of the world's leading AWACS operators.
Air refueling aircraft: "Flying gas stations" that extend aircraft range and expand operational reach. Japan operates KC-767 and KC-46A tankers.
Electronic warfare aircraft: Jam enemy radar and communications while protecting friendly use of the electromagnetic spectrum. "Cognitive electronic warfare" — where AI learns the battlefield's electromagnetic environment in real time and autonomously executes optimal jamming — is attracting attention.
Precision-guided munitions (JDAM): Converting unguided conventional bombs into smart bombs using GPS/INS guidance kits. First used in combat in the 1999 Kosovo conflict, realizing "democratization of precision attack."
Chapter 7: The Crumbling Balance of Power — The Rise of China and the AI Impact
7-1. Technologies That Changed the Rules of War
The history of war is the history of technological innovation. When a nation gains a breakthrough military technology, existing power balances shift dramatically and the rules of war are rewritten. When gunpowder and cannons spread through 14th-century Europe, the era of the feudal knight ended. When aircraft and tanks appeared in the early 20th century, blitzkrieg emerged. And in 1945, the atomic bomb imposed on the world a completely new security framework, in which the threat of mutual assured destruction deterred total war between great powers.
Common to all these technological revolutions: they did not merely improve the performance of a single weapon — they forced the transformation of military doctrine, force structure, and national strategy itself.
7-2. The Wobbling of Pax Americana
After the Cold War, the world entered an era called "Pax Americana." With overwhelming military and economic power backed by the IT revolution, the United States reigned as the sole superpower. The one-sided victory demonstrated in the Gulf War with precision-guided munitions impressed the world with U.S. technological superiority.
But entering the 21st century, the balance began to slowly shift. Russia, avoiding conventional confrontation, used a combination of cyberattacks, information manipulation, and special forces — "asymmetric tactics" — to annex Crimea without triggering U.S. intervention. And an even more serious challenger emerged: China.
7-3. China's Military Rise and "Military-Civilian Fusion"
China, having achieved its economic miracle as the "world's factory," has been rapidly modernizing its military using its enormous wealth. In 2023, China's official defense budget reached roughly five times Japan's, accelerating deployment of advanced weapons including aircraft carriers, stealth fighters (J-20), and hypersonic missiles.
China's true threat lies in "Military-Civilian Fusion" — the national strategy of integrating national defense and economic construction to mobilize civilian cutting-edge technology, talent, and capital for military strengthening. Particularly in strategic fields like AI, quantum computing, and space development, tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei work in lockstep with the military on research and development. This system, in which innovation from free-market civilian competition is seamlessly converted to military technology, boasts overwhelming efficiency and speed compared to the United States, where friction sometimes emerges between the Pentagon and Silicon Valley.
7-4. AI Further Destabilizing the Balance of Power
AI's emergence is further destabilizing the already shaky U.S.-China power balance. China announced its "Next Generation AI Development Plan" in 2017, with the national goal of becoming the world leader in AI by 2030. It has advanced the unique concept of "intelligentized warfare" — integrating AI into all military systems.
AI relativizes traditional indices of military strength such as troop counts, tank numbers, and carrier counts. Small numbers of highly AI-enabled weapons becoming capable of overwhelming large conventional forces is becoming a realistic possibility. This signifies the arrival of an era where the "quality" of military power surpasses "quantity," suggesting that nations leading in AI technology can leap ahead of traditional military powers.
Chapter 8: The Transformation of Modern Warfare — The Threat of Hybrid Warfare
8-1. The Collapse of the Definition of "War"
Interstate conflicts in the 21st century no longer fit the clear image of "war" that begins with a declaration of war and sees armies clashing across borders. Modern warfare has transformed into "hybrid warfare" — a form that blurs the boundary between peacetime and wartime, fuses military and non-military means, and erodes the enemy nation's society from within.
No longer are only missile, fighter, carrier, nuclear weapon, or territorial incursions "attacks." Any means can be weaponized to diminish the enemy's combat capability, create social chaos, and paralyze national decision-making. These attacks proceed quietly but surely — in places where no visible smoke rises.
8-2. The Weaponization of Non-Military Means
The means weaponized in hybrid warfare are extremely diverse, combined in complex ways that make it difficult for the target nation to clearly recognize it is "under attack."
| Domain | Specific attack methods |
|---|---|
| Illegal drugs | Deliberately disseminating powerful illegal drugs like fentanyl to erode a nation's youth and drain social vitality. In the U.S., over 100,000 people die annually of drug overdoses from fentanyl, with Chinese precursor supply cited as a factor. |
| Assassination / chemical attack | Assassinating dissidents, journalists, and activists using poisons and special substances disguised as accidents or illness. Russia's nerve agent Novichok attack on the Skripals (2018) is a textbook example. |
| Bioterrorism | Modifying highly lethal viruses or bacteria to cause bioterror attacks in specific cities or facilities. The risk has grown with advances in synthetic biology. |
| Energy and food | Fostering social instability by severing energy or food supply routes. Russia's restriction of gas flows to Europe is the textbook example of weaponizing energy. |
| Economic sanctions | Stopping exports of specific pharmaceuticals or industrial products to disrupt supply chains. China's rare earth export restrictions (2010) demonstrated the weaponization of economic means. |
| Media takeover | Flooding SNS and news sites with disinformation to foment distrust toward specific politicians or parties and manipulate election results. Spreading narratives that amplify social division. |
| Infiltrating educational institutions | Funding universities and research institutions to secure influence, promoting narratives favorable to one's interests and stealing advanced technology. China's influence operations through Confucius Institutes are problematic in many countries. |
| Manipulating politicians | Using bribery, blackmail, or honey traps to compromise government officials and influential politicians, compelling them to make policy decisions favorable to the targeting nation. |
| Infrastructure attacks | Placing cyber backdoors in critical infrastructure — power grids, communications, financial systems, transportation — during peacetime, then simultaneously taking down systems during wartime to paralyze social functions. |
8-3. Espionage Through Devices — China's Organized Activity
Modern intelligence operations are no longer confined to the world of spy films. Smartphones, PCs, smart home appliances, and even automobiles — deeply embedded in our daily lives — can become the endpoints of state information collection. China in particular, under its National Intelligence Law, obligates all domestic organizations and citizens to cooperate with state intelligence activities, effectively using civilian companies as intelligence agencies.
Backdoors in communications equipment: Chinese telecoms giants Huawei and ZTE have long faced allegations that their products contain "backdoors" for the Chinese government to extract information. More recently, multiple vulnerabilities were discovered in TP-Link routers — which hold a large share of the home WiFi market — and exploitation by the Chinese government-backed hacker group "Volt Typhoon" targeting U.S. critical infrastructure has been reported. Household routers have been unknowingly turned into stepping stones for state attacks.
Smart TV data collection: Major smart TVs — including Chinese manufacturers TCL and Hisense, Korean manufacturers Samsung and LG, and Japan's Sony — incorporate "Automatic Content Recognition (ACR)" technology that tracks viewers' viewing habits in detail. While framed as marketing data, this information about which household watches what content and when can be extremely valuable for public opinion analysis and profiling. It was also revealed that the CIA developed a tool called "Weeping Angel" that could hack Samsung smart TVs to record room conversations even when turned off.
The iRobot acquisition issue and the home data crisis: When Amazon announced the acquisition of iRobot (maker of the Roomba) in 2022, security concerns erupted. The Roomba creates detailed floor maps of homes using built-in cameras and sensors. If this data were misused, not only would personal lifestyles, family compositions, and assets be exposed — there was concern that the layout of prominent individuals' homes could reach foreign intelligence agencies. Amazon ultimately abandoned the acquisition, but had this been a Chinese company's acquisition, it could have seriously threatened U.S. national security by putting detailed home data from millions of American households in Chinese government hands.
8-4. Human Infiltration — International Student Spies and Influence Operations
Not just technology and devices — human beings themselves become instruments of operations. Students and researchers active in academic exchange and business environments are constantly being used for technology theft and espionage by their home intelligence agencies, regardless of their personal intentions. China's "Thousand Talents Plan" is the representative example. In Japan, the case in which a former AIST researcher leaked research data to a Chinese company is still fresh in memory.
8-5. Why AI Now — The Only Answer to Increasingly Complex Threats
The hybrid warfare threats described above exceed human cognitive capacity and decision-making limits in their speed, scale, and complexity. Millions of SNS accounts simultaneously spreading disinformation, thousands of IoT devices launching cyberattacks, financial markets being manipulated in milliseconds — in such a situation, it is physically impossible for humans to collect and analyze all information and determine optimal responses.
Here lies the fundamental reason AI has become indispensable to modern security. AI is currently the only answer for detecting and analyzing threats that deploy at speeds and complexity impossible for humans, minimizing damage, and deriving effective countermeasures.
8-6. The Hyper-Acceleration of the OODA Loop
The concept of decision-making superiority in military operations is explained by the OODA loop advocated by U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd. This is the idea that "Observe → Orient → Decide → Act" cycles faster than the enemy to seize initiative.
AI dramatically accelerates and improves the precision of each stage:
- Observe: Collects and integrates data from all information sources — satellites, drones, cyber sensors — 24/7/365.
- Orient: Instantly perceives subtle patterns and correlations in collected data that human eyes would miss, accurately analyzing the nature of threats and enemy intentions.
- Decide: Based on analysis, simulates action plans with the highest probability of success from infinite options and presents them to human commanders.
- Act: Optimally coordinates networked weapon systems — drone swarms, cyber defense systems — for simultaneous action.
By the time the enemy recognizes the situation, the AI-equipped side has already completed its action and entered the next loop. This overwhelming difference in decision speed is the source of the decisive military advantage AI provides.
Chapter 9: AI Companies and the State — Between Cooperation and Conflict
As AI becomes central to national security, the relationship between the technology companies leading its development and the state has become more complex and tension-filled than ever before. This chapter delves into the ethical and political dilemmas AI companies face through two contrasting examples: Anthropic and xAI.
9-1. Between Ethics and Security — Anthropic's Resistance and Exclusion
In July 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) signed a contract worth up to $200 million with Anthropic, the industry leader in AI safety research. This was to deploy its flagship AI model "Claude" on the military's classified networks — what was intended to be a landmark case of a cutting-edge AI company being integrated into the core of U.S. military intelligence operations.
However, this partnership collapsed within just over six months due to a serious conflict over "ethical red lines" in military AI use. Anthropic strongly demanded that its AI models be prohibited from two uses:
- Domestic Mass Surveillance: Using AI for large-scale surveillance of U.S. citizens.
- Fully Autonomous Weapons: Weapon systems in which AI independently decides to carry out lethal attacks without human involvement.
Anthropic argued these uses "exceed the range that today's frontier AI models can safely and reliably perform" and "would endanger American soldiers and civilians." CEO Dario Amodei publicly refused the Pentagon's demands, saying "We cannot comply with their requests in good conscience."
In response, the Pentagon demanded the right to use AI for "all lawful purposes." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth harshly criticized Anthropic's stance as "the epitome of arrogance and betrayal." When the negotiation deadline expired on February 27, 2026, President Trump denounced Anthropic as "left-wing nutjobs" and issued an executive order prohibiting all federal government agencies from using the company's products. The Pentagon then designated Anthropic a "national security supply chain risk," effectively excluding it completely from military-related business.
This incident vividly illustrated how sharply the ethics of military AI use and the demands of national security can clash.
9-2. OpenAI's Lightning Contract — Silicon Valley's New Reality
On the very night Anthropic was excluded from the Pentagon, a news story rocked the AI industry. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman — Anthropic's biggest rival — announced a new contract with the Pentagon.
"Tonight, we reached an agreement with the Department of Defense to deploy our models on their classified networks. The Department of Defense has shown deep respect for safety and a willingness to partner to achieve the best possible outcomes." — Sam Altman, CEO, post on X (February 28, 2026)
Remarkably, Altman revealed that this contract contained exactly the same ethical safeguards that Anthropic had demanded and been rejected for: the prohibition of domestic mass surveillance and human responsibility in the use of force. Altman said "the Department of Defense agreed to these principles and will reflect them in law and policy, and we incorporated that into the contract," adding "we are asking the Department of Defense to offer the same terms to all AI companies."
Why did the Pentagon grant OpenAI conditions it had refused Anthropic? The precise reason has not been disclosed. But this series of events marks a significant turning point in AI company-state relations. Once, as exemplified by Google's refusal to cooperate with military projects when it espoused "Don't be evil," a liberal culture of keeping distance from the Pentagon ran deep in Silicon Valley. But as interstate AI development competition intensifies and AI becomes foundational to security, refusing government cooperation is no longer a viable option for companies or for national security. OpenAI's contract symbolizes Silicon Valley's new reality: contribution to national security is unavoidable, but ethical guardrails can and should be secured.
9-3. Grok's U.S. Government Use and Conflicts of Interest
In September 2025, xAI, led by Elon Musk, signed a major contract with the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) and the Department of Defense to provide its AI model "Grok" to federal agencies. This decision drew severe criticism from Congress and experts for containing serious conflicts of interest and ethical problems.
The biggest problem: Musk himself served as head of the newly created "Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)" under the Trump administration, with access to classified information from agencies including the DoD. His company receiving a no-bid contract drew sharp criticism from senators including Elizabeth Warren as "Musk using his public position to direct improper benefits to his own company."
Musk's business empire (Tesla, SpaceX) is also deeply dependent on the Chinese market — a significant security concern. A developer with massive economic vulnerability to America's greatest rival providing the AI platform at the core of U.S. national security is a potential threat of the highest order.
9-4. The AI Company-Government Distance Map
The Grok and Anthropic cases show that AI company-government relationships are not uniform.
| Company | Relationship with government/military | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Palantir | Close partner | Received CIA support from founding; provides data analysis platforms to military and intelligence. Extensive track record in security. |
| xAI (Grok) | Politically aligned | Secured government contracts based on close relationship with Trump administration. Facing conflict-of-interest criticism. |
| Cooperation after conflict | Withdrew once after mass employee protests over Project Maven (drone imagery analysis AI) in 2018. Subsequently gradually resumed cooperation with DoD. | |
| Microsoft | Active cooperation | Promotes large-scale military contracts including HoloLens (IVAS) for the U.S. military. |
| OpenAI | Lightning cooperation | Initially prohibited military use, changed policy in 2024. Signed classified network deployment contract with DoD in February 2026, with ethical safeguards. |
Chapter 10: Cyberspace and Cognitive Warfare — The Invisible Battlefield
10-1. The World's First AI-Led Cyberattack
In the second half of 2025, the cybersecurity world was shocked. Anthropic's AI coding tool "Claude Code" was exploited by a Chinese-linked hacker group, confirming the world's first "AI-led cyberattack." Attackers input clever prompts to Claude Code, having AI autonomously generate and optimize malware code, then search for and attack target system vulnerabilities.
What made this incident groundbreaking was that AI autonomously executed the main phases of the attack. While traditional cyberattacks were conducted primarily by skilled human hackers, AI intervention dramatically increased the speed, scale, and sophistication of attacks. AI could complete reconnaissance and attack processes in hours that human hackers would take days to weeks to perform.
10-2. Chinese AI "Distillation Attacks"
The threats to Anthropic were not limited to cyberattacks. Suspicions emerged that Chinese AI company DeepSeek was using a technique called "distillation" — collecting massive volumes of output from Anthropic's flagship model "Claude" and using that data to train its own AI models. Distillation means training one AI model (student) to mimic the output of a high-performance AI model (teacher) — equivalent to "stealing" the enormous R&D investment and know-how that went into the teacher model at low cost.
OpenAI also reported confirming similar distillation activities by DeepSeek, and the issue came to be recognized as a structural problem in U.S.-China AI technology hegemony competition, not just a dispute between specific companies.
10-3. Public Opinion Manipulation Operations Against the Takaichi Administration
Cognitive warfare threats using AI are not someone else's problem for Japan. When Sanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership election in 2025 and Japan's first female prime minister was born, accounts linked to the Chinese government reportedly conducted organized public opinion manipulation operations on X (formerly Twitter) against the Takaichi administration.
According to reports, these accounts mass-distributed posts criticizing Takaichi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine and her stance on Taiwan, sending narratives in Japanese such as "the Takaichi administration will destroy Japan-China relations" and "this is the revival of militarism." Analysis of posting patterns suggests many of these accounts are bots or AI-generated and managed.
OpenAI reported in a 2024 report that a network linked to the Chinese government called "Spamouflage" was using ChatGPT to generate SNS posts in multiple languages to attempt to interfere in political discussions in various countries. Japan's targeting is thought to be part of this pattern, and the risk of more natural, convincing disinformation being generated and spread in massive volumes will grow further as AI advances.
10-4. The Structure and Countermeasures of Cognitive Warfare
Cognitive warfare is a conflict aimed at influencing the perceptions, thinking, and decision-making of an enemy nation's citizens and leaders, compelling them to take actions favorable to one's own side. NATO has positioned this as "the sixth operational domain."
AI fundamentally transforms cognitive warfare. Large language models (LLMs) can generate personalized disinformation in massive quantities tailored to targets' characteristics (age, political tendencies, interests). Deepfake technology fabricates video and audio of political leaders saying things they never said. AI bot networks manipulate public opinion on SNS, artificially creating support or opposition for specific policies and candidates.
Countering these threats requires AI-based fake detection technology development, strengthening media literacy education, and cooperation with SNS platform companies for early detection and removal of disinformation.
Chapter 11: Directed Energy Weapons and Covert Operations
11-1. The Reality of Directed Energy Weapons (DEW)
Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) are weapons that concentrate and direct energy — lasers, microwaves, ultrasound — to destroy, incapacitate, or disable targets. Though they might seem like science fiction, DEW have entered the practical deployment stage.
High-power laser weapons: In 2014, the U.S. Navy deployed the world's first Laser Weapon System (LaWS) on the USS Ponce in the Persian Gulf for operational testing. The higher-power HELIOS (High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance) has been developed and is being fitted to Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. Laser weapons' advantages include extremely low per-shot cost (a few dollars), no need for ammunition resupply, and reaching targets at light speed, making interception impossible.
High-power microwave weapons (HPM): Weapons that irradiate strong microwave pulses to fry electronics. Attracting attention as effective countermeasures against drone swarms. The U.S. Air Force's PHASER has demonstrated capability to incapacitate multiple drones simultaneously.
11-2. Havana Syndrome and Ultrasound Weapon Suspicions
From late 2016 through 2017, U.S. embassy personnel and their families stationed in Havana, Cuba reported unexplained symptoms including headaches, dizziness, hearing impairment, and cognitive decline. This "Havana Syndrome" subsequently spread to U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers stationed in China, Russia, and various European locations, with victims reportedly exceeding 1,000.
The theory that it resulted from directed energy attacks using microwaves or ultrasound has been widely considered. In March 2024, multiple U.S. media outlets reported that Russia's GRU Unit 29155 may have been conducting covert attacks on targeted diplomats and intelligence officers using portable acoustic and microwave devices.
Ultrasound weapons reportedly cause headaches, nausea, disorientation, and even brain damage in targets by irradiating them with high-frequency sound waves beyond the human audible range. Their characteristics — targets often cannot recognize they are being attacked, and little physical evidence remains — make them suitable for "perfect crime"-style covert operations.
11-3. AI Intelligence Operations in Venezuelan Crisis
In the Venezuelan political crisis following 2019, as the Maduro regime and opposition forces clashed, AI was reportedly used in intelligence operations. U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly used AI analysis of satellite imagery, real-time analysis of SNS data, and automated processing of intercepted communications to monitor military and political developments inside Venezuela.
Chapter 12: Fully Autonomous Weapons and Robot Soldiers — The Ethical Frontier
12-1. Current Status of LAWS (Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems)
Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) are weapons in which AI autonomously identifies, selects, and attacks targets without human involvement — "killer robots."
Currently, weapons that make fully autonomous lethal decisions are officially said to not yet be deployed, but the lines are rapidly blurring. Israel's "Harop" is a loitering munition that autonomously searches for and attacks enemy radar sites. South Korea's "SGR-A1" is an autonomous sentry robot deployed in the demilitarized zone with the theoretical ability to fire without human approval. Turkey's STM "Kargu-2" is recorded in a UN report as the world's first LAWS use case, having attacked soldiers without human direction in the 2020 Libyan civil war.
12-2. The Ukraine War — A Test Ground for Drone Warfare
Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrated to the world that drones had become the stars of modern warfare. Ukrainian forces have deployed massive numbers of FPV (first-person view) drones converted from cheap civilian models, destroying Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and logistics points in succession. Ukrainian officials state that approximately 80% of front-line casualties are caused by drones.
What is particularly noteworthy is how rapidly drone autonomy has advanced. While human operator-controlled FPV drones were initially mainstream, the intensification of Russian electronic warfare (jamming) has accelerated development of AI-equipped autonomous flight and autonomous target identification capabilities that can execute missions even when GPS signals and control frequencies are jammed.
12-3. Military Use of Dog-Type Robots
Military use of quadrupedal robots — "dog robots" — is also advancing rapidly. Boston Dynamics' "Spot" and Ghost Robotics' "Vision 60" are being used for reconnaissance, surveillance, explosive ordnance detection, and logistics, leveraging their high mobility over rough terrain.
China has been particularly aggressive. Chinese company Unitree Robotics' dog robot "B2" has been demonstrated with rifles and anti-tank missiles mounted on its back, with joint exercises with the PLA reported. In the Ukraine war, video of Ukrainian forces deploying dog robots with mounted machine guns spread on SNS, impressing upon the world that an era of robot weapons in actual combat had arrived.
12-4. Military Conversion of Humanoid Robots
Military conversion of humanoid robots is no longer confined to science fiction. Commercial humanoid robots — Tesla's "Optimus," Figure's "Figure 02," Chinese company UBTECH's "Walker S" — are developing rapidly, and their application to the military domain is only a matter of time.
The military advantage of humanoid robots lies in their ability to use existing infrastructure designed for humans (buildings, vehicles, tools) as-is. China announced a "Humanoid Robot Industry Development Plan" in 2025 targeting establishment of mass production by 2027, explicitly including applications in military and security domains.
12-5. The Growing Robot Weapons Market and Ethical Dilemmas
The global military robot market is expanding rapidly, projected to exceed $30 billion by 2030. But the proliferation of robot weapons poses serious ethical dilemmas. International society has still not found a clear answer to the fundamental question of "whether it is permissible for machines to decide to kill humans." CCW framework discussions on LAWS regulation continue, but the U.S., Russia, China, India, and other major nations oppose legally binding regulations, and negotiations are stalled.
Chapter 13: AI Military Simulation — Knowing the Outcome Before War Begins
13-1. History and Evolution of Military Simulation
Military simulation has a long history, dating back to the "Kriegsspiel (war game)" developed by the Prussian Army in the early 19th century — a board game format where pieces were placed on maps and referees judged combat results, revolutionizing Prussian staff education.
Entering the 20th century, military simulation advanced dramatically with the development of computers. During the Cold War, probabilistic simulation methods were used to analyze nuclear war scenarios. In the 1991 Gulf War, the U.S. military used large-scale computer simulations to pre-verify operational plans, contributing greatly to their success.
13-2. AI Transforming Simulation Technology
Modern AI technology is improving military simulation accuracy and speed by orders of magnitude.
Digital twin battlefields: "Digital twin" technology precisely reproducing real battlefield environments in virtual space is attracting attention. Satellite imagery, terrain data, meteorological data, and enemy position information are integrated in real time to construct "another battlefield" in virtual space. Commanders can simulate various operational scenarios on this virtual battlefield to develop optimal action plans. China's PLA is actively advancing construction of digital twin battlefields called "BattleVerse," focusing on strengthening AI-powered battlefield simulation capability.
Tactical optimization through reinforcement learning: Research is progressing on using AI reinforcement learning to autonomously discover optimal tactics through millions of simulated combats in virtual environments. DARPA's "Mosaic Warfare" concept aims to achieve AI's ability to optimally combine diverse weapons and flexibly reconstitute forces in response to situations.
Project Maven: The DoD's project launched in 2017 to use AI to automatically analyze drone reconnaissance footage and support target identification. Originally involved Google, which withdrew after employee protests; later taken over by companies including Palantir.
JADC2 (Joint All-Domain Command and Control): The U.S. military concept of connecting all domain sensors and weapons — land, sea, air, space, cyber — in an AI network to realize optimal real-time decision-making and action.
13-3. An Era of Knowing Likely Outcomes Before War Begins
The evolution of AI simulation technology is creating an unprecedented situation: "before war begins, the likely outcome can be determined to a considerable degree."
On a high-precision digital twin battlefield, AI comprehensively analyzes both sides' forces, logistics capability, geographic conditions, political constraints, and more, simulating thousands of scenarios to predict conflict outcomes with high probability. This substantially reduces the "fog of war" that Clausewitz described — meaning fundamental transformation of military strategy.
However, this capability is a double-edged sword. A 2024 study reporting that when latest AIs are made to run war simulations, they escalate to nuclear war with 95% probability was a shocking finding. The risk exists that AI, rationally pursuing victory, may choose extreme options (use of nuclear weapons, etc.) that humans would hesitate over.
13-4. Russia's AI Command and Control Reform
Russia too, drawing lessons from the Ukraine invasion, is rapidly advancing reform of AI-powered command and control (C2) systems. According to a February 2026 CSIS report, the Russian military is accelerating automation of battlefield data collection and analysis, AI-based target recommendation, and autonomous operation of drone swarms, placing AI at the core of command and control. Ironically, the difficulties in Ukraine have become a catalyst for the Russian military's AI adoption.
Chapter 14: Space — The Next Hegemonic Domain After Land, Sea, and Air
14-1. Why Space Becomes the "Fourth Battlefield"
Space, once a symbol of peaceful use, has rapidly gained importance in each nation's security strategy as the "fourth battlefield" following land, sea, and air. As artificial satellites have become infrastructure supporting the foundations of modern society — communications, positioning, intelligence gathering — securing superiority in space has become a matter of national survival.
Modern warfare is communication-based. Without GPS satellites, precision-guided weapons cannot function; without communications satellites, real-time command and control is impossible; without reconnaissance satellites, enemy movements cannot be grasped. An army stripped of its space infrastructure has effectively lost its "eyes, ears, and voice."
14-2. Space Force Creation and the Arms Race
Most symbolizing the growing military value of space is the creation of "space forces" by major nations.
| Country/Organization | Year established | Primary role |
|---|---|---|
| United States Space Force (USSF) | 2019 | Space operations, defense of U.S. space assets |
| PLA Space Force | Around 2024 | Space operations, developing anti-satellite attack capability |
| Russian Aerospace Forces | 2015 | Ballistic missile defense, space situational awareness |
| Japan ASDF Space Operations Group | 2022 | Space Situational Awareness (SSA), securing stable use of space |
14-3. Military Conversion Risk of Space-Based Solar Power
Space-based Solar Power (SBSP) — generating electricity with large solar panels in space and transmitting it to the ground via microwave or laser — holds promise as a clean energy source not subject to weather or day/night cycles. However, this technology has a serious inherent military conversion risk.
Equipment for transmitting energy from space to the ground can be converted to directed energy weapons attacking ground targets simply by changing output and directionality. The energy transmission equipment installed in space has the potential to become military weapons as-is.
14-4. Starlink's Geopolitical Value and Deterrence
SpaceX's "Starlink" satellite internet service dramatically proved its military value in the Ukraine war. As Russia's invasion destroyed Ukraine's ground communications infrastructure, Starlink played an indispensable role as front-line forces' communications means, contributing to drone piloting, coordinate transmission for artillery strikes, and maintaining command and control.
Modern warfare being communication-based, low-orbit satellite constellations like Starlink function as powerful deterrents. A network of thousands of satellites has redundancy that doesn't lose function from destroying a few, maintaining communications even if ground infrastructure is destroyed. This negates the enemy's strategic option of "cutting communications to incapacitate the opponent," resulting in an effect of deterring conflict escalation.
14-5. The Inseparability of Rocket Development and Military Conversion
Civilian rocket development technology can be directly converted for military use. Rockets and ICBMs stand on essentially the same technical foundation. The capability to place large payloads into space is inseparable from the capability to deliver nuclear warheads across continents.
The domains where SpaceX and China lead overwhelmingly: SpaceX has dramatically reduced launch costs and achieved over 100 launches per year through reusable rockets "Falcon 9" and "Starship." China has also rapidly expanded launch capability through Long March series improvements and nurturing civilian space companies.
14-6. Anti-Satellite Weapons (ASAT) and Space Debris
Military use of space creates two serious threats: "anti-satellite weapons (ASAT)" and "space debris." China's 2007 ASAT test produced thousands of debris fragments, scattered in orbit. Russia conducted a similar test in 2021, generating over 1,500 pieces of debris, forcing ISS astronauts to temporarily shelter.
ASAT types include direct attack using missiles to physically destroy, directed energy weapons using lasers to incapacitate satellite sensors, co-orbital types capturing with robotic arms, and electronic warfare jamming communications.
14-7. The New Power Struggle Over the Moon
While competition intensifies in Earth orbit, the Moon is also becoming a new arena for power struggle. The U.S.-led Artemis program aims for crewed lunar landing in the late 2020s, with Japan and European nations announcing participation. China and Russia have jointly announced plans for an International Lunar Research Station (ILRS).
The Moon is a strategic high ground capable of constantly monitoring all of Earth — establishing missile bases or surveillance outposts there could fundamentally overturn terrestrial military balances.
Chapter 15: Energy Security and the Contest for Power Dominance
15-1. Deepening Interdependence and Supply Chain Vulnerability
Globalization brought great prosperity to the world economy, but also maximized interstate interdependence, creating new vulnerabilities. Particularly for Japan, resource-poor, stable supply of energy and food is a national lifeline. Modern warfare targets not just armed conflict but the supply chains supporting economic activity themselves. If the Strait of Hormuz were closed and energy procurement routes severed, Japan's economic activity would be paralyzed within weeks, and power supply disruption would devastate food production (particularly greenhouse cultivation and aquaculture). In such circumstances, Japan would be extremely vulnerable to foreign military pressure and diplomatic coercion.
15-2. Energy as the AI Age Bottleneck
AI technology's evolution further increases energy security's importance. Training and operating large AI models requires enormous electricity to run data centers around the clock. The more AI becomes the core of a nation's intelligence infrastructure, the more stable power supply directly determines national competitiveness and, ultimately, military strength. The AI age's contest for hegemony is also a contest for power dominance.
China's trajectory is extremely concerning in this regard. China already surpasses the United States in domestic power grid scale and stability, pushing renewable energy and nuclear power introduction under state leadership to secure world-class power supply capacity. For China, which advances AI development and military application integrally under its "military-civilian fusion" strategy, this overwhelming power supply capability could provide decisive advantages over the U.S. and Japan in AI simulation, autonomous weapons development, and cyber attack capability enhancement.
15-3. China's Energy Vulnerability: Oil Dependence and Geopolitical Risk
However, China's energy strategy has a fatal Achilles' heel: crude oil import dependence. China's foreign dependence for crude oil has reached 72%, with approximately 40% procured from U.S. sanction targets like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela (2025 data). While this "cheap oil strategy" looks economically advantageous, it carries extremely high geopolitical risk.
Instability in Iran's domestic situation or the collapse of Venezuela's Maduro regime would immediately cut off cheap oil supply. More importantly, most of China's imported crude oil passes through the Malacca Strait — a geopolitical chokepoint under U.S. naval influence. If this sea lane were blockaded in wartime, China's economic and military activities could be paralyzed within weeks.
Chapter 16: Conclusion — Recommendations for Japan's National Security
16-1. An Era Where AI Becomes the "Foundation" of Military Power
As analyzed throughout this white paper, AI is no longer just one element of military power — it is becoming the very "foundation" of military power itself. Information collection and analysis, command and control, weapons operation, cyber defense, cognitive warfare, logistics management — an era has arrived where effective military power cannot be maintained without AI in every security domain.
The information superiority principle that ancient Sun Tzu taught is being realized in its ultimate form through AI big data analysis. The mobility and concentration of force Napoleon pursued is being executed at ultra-high speed by AI autonomous weapons. The "fog of war" Clausewitz identified is being substantially cleared by AI simulation. Yet simultaneously, new challenges humanity has never faced are being thrust upon us: the risk of "flash war" from AI runaway, and the ethical problems of fully autonomous weapons.
16-2. AI Military Technologies That Will Gain Even Greater Power
AI's military influence will continue to expand at accelerating speed.
Deployment of fully autonomous weapons: Currently premised on "Human-in-the-loop," but as the speed of combat outpaces AI decision-making speed, operation of fully autonomous weapons will become reality.
Advancement of AI military simulation: Through the fusion of digital twin technology and AI, fairly precise simulation before war begins will become possible, enabling prediction of conflict outcomes with high probability. While this functions as deterrence, it also increases the risk of preemptive attack when one side judges it can "win."
Acceleration of space militarization: The risk of space-based solar power energy transmission equipment being converted to military weapons, the strategic value of satellite constellations like Starlink, the ICBMs convertibility of rocket technology — space will grow in importance as the fourth battlefield after land, sea, and air.
The emergence of humanoid soldiers: With dog robots already deployed in actual combat, military conversion of humanoid robots is only a matter of time. Robot soldier units that can execute missions around the clock without endangering human soldiers will become reality in the near future.
16-3. Challenges Japan Faces
Japan faces several serious challenges in the face of this AI military revolution.
Defense spending constraints: Major defense spending increases began in 2023, but the 2% of GDP target may be insufficient to keep pace with China's defense spending growth.
AI talent shortage: Highly capable AI personnel to lead military AI development are critically lacking. Building mechanisms to attract civilian AI talent to the defense sector is urgent.
Legal and ethical constraints: Legal frameworks for developing and operating autonomous weapons are not in place, and consistency with constitutional constraints requires discussion.
Allied coordination: While maintaining the Japan-U.S. alliance as its axis, multilateral technology cooperation — GCAP (Japan-UK-Italy joint fighter development) and AUKUS coordination — is indispensable.
16-4. Investment Strategy for Protecting National Interests
Strategic investment in AI military technology is indispensable for protecting Japan's national interests. Investment concentrated in the following five priority areas is recommended.
| Priority area | Specific measures | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|
| AI foundational technology | Developing domestic large language models, researching military-dedicated AI chips | Securing technological autonomy, reducing supply chain risk |
| Autonomous weapons | Domestic development of unmanned aircraft and unmanned vessels, researching AI autonomous control technology | Minimizing human casualties, improving force quality |
| Cyber and cognitive warfare | AI cyber defense systems, fake detection technology, media literacy education | Improving social resilience, defending democracy |
| Space | Small satellite constellations, strengthening SSA capability, expanding space operations | Improving space situational awareness, securing communications redundancy |
| Human capital development | Establishing defense AI research institutes, systems for recruiting civilian AI talent to defense | Building sustainable foundation for AI military technology development |
16-5. Closing
The fusion of AI and the military is a historical tide that can no longer be stopped. Nations that fall behind in this tide will face fatal security vulnerabilities. Japan must maintain the principle of exclusively defensive defense while placing AI — this new "intelligence" — as the foundation of national security, adapting to a changing threat environment.
Sun Tzu taught 2,500 years ago: "War is a matter of vital importance to the state; a matter of life and death; the road either to safety or ruin." In the modern era where AI is becoming the foundation of military power, these words carry greater weight than ever. Japan must now face squarely the great matter of the "AI military revolution" — a matter of national survival.
TIMEWELL's export control AI agent "TRAFEED (formerly ZEROCK ExCHECK)" is a solution for preemptively preventing the risk of advanced technology being inadvertently diverted to military use. It addresses the complexity of geopolitical risk and technology management described in this white paper and streamlines export control operations.
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