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This Article Discusses the Steps Required to Achieve a Fully Electrified, Sustainable Energy Economy
This article discusses the steps required to achieve a fully electrified, sustainable energy economy. Specifically, rebuilding the power grid with renewable energy, switching to electric vehicles, heat pumps, and high-temperature heat supply, and transitioning aviation and shipping fuels to sustainable alternatives are identified as critical actions.
By pursuing these steps, a fully electrified, sustainable energy economy can be realized. Modeling shows that less investment and less material extraction are required, and that better outcomes can be achieved than by continuing the current unsustainable energy economy.
The need for electricity supply and storage is also addressed—the total electricity required across the entire system is estimated and methods for allocating it to each end use are presented. For example, if 12% of wind generation aligns with EV charging demand, then 12% of the total wind output is allocated to EV charging. This allows generation and storage to be coordinated to meet the load for each end use.
The article also references the 4 PWh per year of sustainable electricity needed to manufacture batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines. This means that the energy sources used for their manufacturing must also shift to renewables.
As concrete examples, Denmark's complete transition to renewable energy and Airbus's intensive R&D into sustainable aircraft are cited. These examples demonstrate that achieving a fully electrified, sustainable energy economy is practically feasible.
Furthermore, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles is expected to reduce petroleum demand related to automobiles. Meanwhile, adopting heat pumps in residential, commercial, and industrial settings can reduce natural gas demand. Electrifying high-temperature heat supply and hydrogen production can also reduce petroleum demand.
However, since demand for key raw materials will increase significantly, these efforts require careful attention. In particular, demand for lithium, cobalt, and rare metals is expected to rise. Extracting and refining these minerals requires substantial energy, and widespread adoption of renewables is also expected to significantly increase energy demand.
However, once a sustainable energy economy is achieved, future material reuse and recycling will make it possible to reduce demand for key raw materials. Additionally, focusing on increasing material supply going forward is expected to eliminate constraints on key raw materials.
From the above, it is clear that promoting the adoption of renewable energy makes it possible to achieve a sustainable energy economy. However, it is important to pay attention to supply and demand for key raw materials and to pursue recycling and reuse.
To achieve a fully electrified, sustainable energy economy using renewable energy, three key points are important:
Introduction of renewable energy: It is necessary to switch to renewables and rebuild the power grid, switch to electric vehicles, heat pumps, and high-temperature heat supply, and transition aviation and shipping fuels to sustainable alternatives.
Electricity supply and storage: It is necessary to estimate the total electricity required across the system, calculate how to allocate it to each end use, and supply the 4 PWh per year of sustainable electricity needed to manufacture batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines.
Attention to key raw materials: Demand for key raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and rare metals will increase, causing the energy required for their extraction and refining to rise. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce demand for key raw materials through recycling and reuse.
[Full Translation] Master Plan Part 3 Sustainable Energy for the Entire Planet
Repower the existing power grid with renewable energy
Switch homes, businesses, and industry to heat pumps
Modeling a Fully Sustainable Energy Economy
Modeling a Fully Sustainable Energy Economy
US-only model results — addressing new electrification demand
Global model results — addressing new electrification demand
Global model results — transportation electrification and batteries
Appendix
- Appendix: How generation and storage are allocated
- Appendix: Building a sustainable energy economy — energy density
This article was published on April 5, 2023.
We are grateful to many prior works related to sustainable energy economies, the work of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratories, and various advisors unaffiliated with Tesla.
Felix Maire Matthew Fox Mark Simons Turner Caldwell Alex Yoo Eliah Gilfenbaum Andrew Ulvestad Tesla Advisors Drew Baglino Rohan Ma Vineet Mehta
On March 1, 2023, Tesla released "Master Plan Part 3 — End-Use Electrification and Sustainable Generation and Storage," proposing a roadmap to reach a sustainable global energy economy. This paper outlines the background, sources, and calculations behind that proposal.
The analysis consists primarily of three components:
Forecasting electricity demand: Forecasting the electricity demand needed for a fully electrified energy economy without fossil fuels.
Building electricity supply: Constructing the most efficient portfolio of electricity generation and storage resources to meet hourly electricity demand.
Material feasibility and investment: Determining the material feasibility required for a sustainable energy economy and the manufacturing investment needed to make it possible.
This paper demonstrates that a technically sustainable energy economy is achievable and requires less investment and less material extraction than the current unsustainable energy economy. While many prior studies have reached similar conclusions, this research aims to advance thinking on the material intensity, manufacturing capacity, and manufacturing investment required for the transition across all energy sectors worldwide.
[Figure 2: Estimates of resources and investment required for Master Plan 3]
The IEA's 2019 Global Energy Balance
According to the IEA's 2019 Global Energy Balance, global primary energy supply was 165 PWh/year, of which 134 PWh/year came from fossil fuels. Of this, 37% (61 PWh) was lost to fossil fuel industry self-consumption and conversion losses in generation, and 27% (44 PWh) was consumed by inefficient end users. This means that only 36% (59 PWh) of primary energy supply actually produces useful work or heat for the economy. Similarly, analysis by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory shows comparable levels of waste in global and US energy supply.
[Figure 3: Global energy flows by sector, IEA and Tesla analysis]
In a fully electrified economy powered by sustainable energy, upstream losses associated with extraction, refining, and combustion to generate electricity are eliminated, and downstream losses associated with non-electric end uses disappear as well. However, some industrial processes may require greater energy input (e.g., green hydrogen production), and some extraction and refining activities—such as metals for batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines—will need to increase.
The following six steps outline the actions required to fully electrify the economy and eliminate fossil fuel use. These six steps detail the electricity demand assumptions for a sustainable energy economy and lead to a modeled electricity demand curve. This modeling was conducted using high-precision data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and applied to the U.S. energy economy. Global actions were estimated using a 6x scaling factor based on 2019 U.S. and global energy consumption scalars from IEA energy balances. However, since global energy demand differs in composition and changes over time, this analysis leaves room for future improvement.
This plan considers onshore/offshore wind, solar, existing nuclear, and hydropower as sustainable generation sources, and treats existing biomass as sustainable but potentially subject to phase-out in the future. The plan does not address sequestering CO₂ emitted over the past century; beyond the direct air capture required for synthetic fuel production, future implementation of such technology would likely increase global energy demand.
01 Repower the Existing Electricity Grid with Renewables
Existing U.S. electricity demand is modeled based on inflexible baseline demand from the EIA. Regional differences in demand, renewable resource availability, weather, and transmission constraints are considered across four regions: Texas, Pacific, Midwest, and Eastern. Meeting this demand requires sustainable generation and storage.
Globally, 65 PWh of primary energy is supplied to the power sector annually, but 46 PWh of that comes from fossil fuels, and due to poor energy conversion efficiency, only 26 PWh of electricity is actually produced per year. Under renewable electricity supply, the electricity required for sustainable generation is 26 PWh per year.
Electric vehicles are approximately 4x more efficient than internal combustion vehicles due to high efficiency, regenerative braking capability, and optimized platform design. This applies to all vehicle types including passenger cars, light trucks, and Class 8 semi-trailers.
[Table 1: Efficiency comparison of electric vehicles and internal combustion vehicles]
Electric vehicle efficiency (MPGe: miles per kilowatt-hour of electricity consumption)
As a specific example, the Tesla Model 3 achieves fuel efficiency of 131 miles per gallon equivalent (MPGe), which is 3.9x lower than the Toyota Corolla's 34 MPG, as shown in Table 1. When accounting for upstream energy consumption associated with fuel extraction and refining, this ratio becomes even higher (see Figure 4).
[Figure 4: Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Corolla comparison]
To establish electricity demand for transportation from electric vehicles, historical monthly petroleum usage for each region is scaled by the EV efficiency factor above (4x). Tesla vehicle fleet charging behavior is divided into flexible and inflexible portions, and is assumed as an EV charging load curve in a 100% electrified transportation sector.
On average, Tesla drivers charge once every 1.7 days from 60% to 90% SOC, meaning EVs have sufficient range for typical daily driving distances. When charging infrastructure exists at both home and work, charging can be optimized to match renewable energy supply.
Global electrification of the transportation sector eliminates 28 PWh/year of fossil fuel use, and applying the EV efficiency factor results in approximately 7 PWh/year of additional electricity demand.
03 Switch Homes, Businesses, and Industry to Heat Pumps
03 Switch Homes, Businesses, and Industry to Heat Pumps
Heat pumps are a technology that moves heat from source to sink via compression/expansion of an intermediate refrigerant. With appropriate refrigerant selection, they can be used for air conditioning, water heating, clothes drying, and many industrial processes in residential and commercial buildings.
Air-source heat pumps are the optimal technology for retrofitting existing residential gas furnaces. Based on a Heating Seasonal Performance Factor (HSPF) of 9.5 Btu/Wh (a typical efficiency rating for current heat pumps), they deliver 2.8 units of heat per unit of energy consumed. Gas furnaces, by contrast, burn natural gas to generate heat, with an Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE) of approximately 90%. Therefore, heat pumps use approximately 3x less energy than gas furnaces.
[Figure 6: Efficiency improvement of heat pumps vs. gas furnaces for air conditioning]
The EIA provides monthly historical data on natural gas use in residential and commercial buildings for each U.S. region. If all gas appliances are electrified with a 3x heat pump efficiency factor, energy demand will decrease. The change in hourly electricity demand from heat pumps is estimated by applying hourly load factors from baseline electricity demand, calculating demand when homes are heating or cooling. In summer, residential and commercial demand peaks in the afternoon when cooling load is highest, while in winter it peaks in the morning and evening in a pattern known as the "duck curve." Introducing heat pump electrification in residential and commercial buildings will reduce fossil fuel use by 18 PWh/year while creating 6 PWh/year of additional electricity demand.
[Figure 7: Residential and commercial heating and cooling load factors (vs. time of day)]
Industrial processes such as food, paper, textile, and wood industries can use heat pumps to improve efficiency, but efficiency decreases as temperature differentials increase. Heat pump integration is complex, and the exact efficiency depends heavily on the heat source temperature. Since the key factor in determining heat pump efficiency is the temperature rise, achievable COP (coefficient of performance) is calculated based on simplified assumptions.
[Table 2: Assumed heat pump efficiency improvement by temperature]
Industrial heat pump efficiency factors are calculated based on the temperature composition of industrial processes from the IEA and the assumed temperature-based heat pump efficiencies in Table 2. The EIA provides historical monthly fossil fuel use for the industrial sector by subregion. All industrial fossil fuel use except for fossil fuels used as products (rubber, lubricants, etc.) is assumed to be used for process heat. According to the IEA, 45% of process heat is below 200°C, which when electrified with heat pumps requires 2.2x less input energy. Additional industrial heat pump electricity demand is modeled as a flat hourly demand. For industrial process heat below 200°C, heat pump electrification will globally reduce fossil fuel use by 12 PWh/year while generating 5 PWh/year of additional electricity demand.
High-temperature (>200°C) industrial processes—steel, chemicals, fertilizers, cement production—account for the remaining 55% of fossil fuel use and require special consideration.
These high-temperature industrial processes can be directly electrified. Specifically, they can be buffered through direct electric resistance heating, electric arc furnaces, or thermal storage that utilizes low-cost renewable energy when surplus exists. On-site thermal storage is one useful means of cost-effectively facilitating industrial electrification by using thermal storage media and direct radiant heating elements.
Identify optimal thermal storage media for each temperature range/application
[Figure 9A: Thermal storage — heat supply to processes via heat transfer fluid]
[Figure 9B: Thermal storage — heat supply to processes via direct radiant heating]
Electric resistance heating and electric arc furnaces have the same efficiency as blast furnace heating. Therefore, a similar renewable primary energy input is required. These high-temperature processes are modeled as fixed, flat demand.
Thermal Storage Functions as an Energy Buffer
Thermal storage functions as an energy buffer for high-temperature processes used in industrial settings, with a round-trip thermal efficiency of 95%. In regions with high solar installation capacity, thermal storage charges during the day and discharges at night to continuously meet industrial heat needs over 24 hours. Figure 9 shows multiple materials capable of providing high-temperature process heat, with several candidate materials able to provide process heat above 1500°C.
Electrification of high-temperature processes is expected to reduce fossil fuel use by 9 PWh/year, and assuming equivalent heat supply efficiency, generate 9 PWh/year of additional electricity demand.
Note: Bubble diameter represents specific heat available range.
Production of sustainable hydrogen for steel and fertilizer
Currently, hydrogen is made from coal, petroleum, and natural gas and is used in industries such as diesel refining, steel production, and fertilizer manufacturing. Green hydrogen, by contrast, can be produced by electrolyzing water with electricity or by thermal decomposition of methane. Green hydrogen is gaining attention as an environmentally friendly energy source because it contains no carbon.
To estimate green hydrogen demand, the following assumptions are required.
For a conservative estimate of green hydrogen electricity demand, the following assumptions apply:
Hydrogen will no longer be needed for fossil fuel refining in the future
Steel production will convert to direct reduced iron processes, requiring hydrogen as input. Hydrogen demand for reducing iron oxide ore (assumed to be Fe3O4) is based on the following reduction reactions.
Reduction with H2:
Fe3O4 + H2 = 3FeO + H2O
FeO + H2 = Fe + H2O
All global hydrogen production comes from electrolysis
Global green hydrogen demand is estimated at 150 Mt/year, and sourcing this from electrolysis requires approximately 7.2 PWh/year of sustainably generated electricity. Electricity demand for hydrogen production is modeled as a flexible load with an annual production constraint, and hydrogen storage potential is modeled using underground gas storage facilities. U.S. hydrogen storage requires approximately 30% of existing U.S. underground gas storage facilities, but alternative storage solutions may be needed for geographically unevenly distributed storage facilities.
Global sustainable green hydrogen reduces fossil fuel energy use by 6 PWh/year and non-energy use by 2 PWh/year. Fossil fuels are replaced by an additional 7 PWh/year of electricity demand.
Land/marine international shipping can use small batteries with frequent charging stops, and long-distance routes can be electrified through design speed and route optimization. According to the IEA, shipping consumes 3.2 PWh of energy per year. Applying an estimated 1.5x electrification efficiency factor, a fully electrified global shipping fleet would consume 2.1 PWh/year of electricity.
Current battery energy density also enables electrification of short-distance flights, achievable through optimized aircraft design and flight trajectories. For long-distance flights, the 85 billion gallons of jet fuel per year that account for 80% of aviation energy consumption can be replaced with synthetic fuels using surplus renewable energy. Synthetic fuels can synthesize various liquid hydrocarbons using a mixture of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen (H2) via the Fischer-Tropsch process. Synthetic jet fuel production requires an additional 5 PWh/year of electricity, including:
CO₂ captured via direct air capture
Synthetic Fuels Can Also Source Carbon and Hydrogen from Biomass
Synthetic fuels can also source carbon and hydrogen from biomass. This will enable the development of more efficient and cost-effective synthetic fuel production methods, and as higher energy density batteries enable electrification of longer-distance aircraft, synthetic fuel demand will decrease. Electricity demand for synthetic fuel production is modeled as flexible demand with an annual energy constraint and can be stored in a 1:1 volume ratio using conventional fuel storage technology. Shipping electricity demand is modeled as constant hourly demand. Global sustainable synthetic fuels and electricity for shipping and aviation can reduce fossil fuel use by 7 PWh/year and create 7 PWh/year of additional global electricity demand.
Achieving a sustainable energy economy requires additional electricity to build the generation and storage infrastructure—solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries. This electricity demand is modeled as fixed hourly demand in the industrial sector. For more details, see the appendix "Building a Sustainable Energy Economy — Energy Density."
Modeling a Fully Sustainable Energy Economy
These six steps create U.S. electricity demand that must be met using sustainable generation and storage. To do this, a portfolio of generation and storage is established using an hourly optimal integrated capacity expansion and dispatch model. The model is divided into four U.S. subregions, interregional transmission constraints are modeled, and the model is run across four weather years from 2019 to 2022. Interregional transmission limits are estimated based on current line capacity ratings for major transmission corridors published by North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entities (SERC30, WECC31, ERCOT32). Figure 11 shows hourly energy demand for a fully electrified U.S. economy, with modeled regions and grid interconnections as described below.
[Map 1: Modeled regions and interconnections in the United States]
[Figure 11: Hourly demand in a fully electrified United States]
Wind and solar resources are modeled with their respective hourly capacity factors (i.e., the amount of electricity produced per unit of installed capacity), interconnection costs, and maximum available capacity for the model to build. Region-specific hourly capacity factors for wind and solar are estimated based on historical wind/solar generation from the EIA for each region, reflecting differences in resource potential due to regional weather patterns. Capacity factors were scaled to represent future trends based on Princeton's recent Net-Zero America study. Figure 11 shows U.S. hourly wind and solar capacity factors versus time, and Table 3 shows average capacity factors and demand by U.S. region.
[Figure 12: Historical hourly renewable energy capacity factors in the United States]
[Table 3: Average historical capacity factors for wind and solar and demand in a fully electrified economy by region]
The model builds generation and storage based on resource-specific cost and performance attributes and a global objective of minimizing levelized energy cost. The model assumes increasing interregional transmission capacity. To reliably supply electricity throughout the year, it is economically optimal to deploy surplus solar and wind capacity, which results in curtailment. Curtailment occurs when (1) solar and/or wind generation in a region exceeds demand, (2) storage is full, and (3) there is no available transmission capacity to send surplus generation to other regions. There are economic tradeoffs between building surplus renewable generation capacity, building grid storage, and expanding transmission capacity. These tradeoffs may change as grid storage technology matures, but based on modeled assumptions, the optimal generation and storage portfolio resulted in 32% curtailment.
Curtailment is already occurring in renewable energy markets, with 19% of Scotland's wind generation and 6% of California's solar generation curtailed. In a sustainable energy economy, cheap energy becomes abundant during surplus periods, affecting how and when energy is used. Figure 12 shows the role of each generation and storage resource in balancing supply and demand during solar-abundant daytime hours.
[Figure 13: Hourly generation in the U.S. Eastern region in 2019 (excluding imports/exports)]
[Figure 14: Seasonality of hydrogen storage charging and discharging in the U.S. Eastern region (monthly average)]
As shown in Figure 14, hydrogen storage is typically filled during shoulder months (spring and autumn) when electricity demand is low. This is because heating and cooling seasons have ended and solar and wind generation is relatively high. Similarly, as summer and winter surplus generation decreases, hydrogen storage also decreases, providing inter-seasonal hydrogen storage.
For stationary applications, the energy storage technologies currently widely deployed are considered, centered on those shown in Table 4. Here, "Li-ion" refers to LiFePO4/Graphite lithium-ion batteries. However, lithium-ion is subject to commodity price fluctuations, particularly affected by lithium prices, so future cost estimates are conservative. Note that other emerging technologies such as metal-air (Fe <-> Fe2O3 redox couple) and sodium-ion exist but are not yet commercially deployed and are excluded from consideration here.
The Table Below Details All Generation Technologies Considered
The table below details all generation technologies considered in a sustainable energy economy. Deployment costs were obtained from NREL and Princeton Net-Zero America studies for 2030 to 2040.
U.S.-Only Model Results — Addressing New Electrification Demand
The optimal generation and storage portfolio to meet electricity demand at each hour across the modeled year in the United States is shown in Table 6 below.
An additional 1.2 TWh of distributed stationary batteries is added. This battery deployment is based on a phased rollout of distributed stationary storage installed on rooftops of residential and commercial buildings. Specifically, this includes storage installed in 15 million single-family homes with rooftop solar panels, industrial storage combined with 43 GW of commercial rooftop solar, and at least 200 GW of storage replacement for existing backup generator capacity.
Distributed storage deployment is driven by factors not fully captured in the minimum-cost model framework and is therefore treated exogenously from model output. Such factors include end-user resilience and self-sufficiency when storage is combined with rooftop solar.
Global Model Results — Addressing New Electrification Demand
Applying the six steps to global energy flows enables 125 PWh/year of energy from fossil fuels to be replaced by sustainably generated electricity. This requires new industries for batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and more, requiring 4 PWh/year of energy. See the appendix "Building a Sustainable Energy Economy — Energy Density" for details.
The global generation and storage portfolio was calculated by scaling the U.S. resource mix by a factor of 6. However, this method is a simplification with room for future improvement, because global energy demand differs in composition by region and is expected to increase over time. This analysis was also conducted in the U.S. because high-precision time-series data is available for the U.S.
[Figure 15: Sustainable energy economy, global energy flows by industry, IEA & Tesla analysis]
Currently, there are 1.4 billion vehicles in the world, with annual passenger car production of approximately 85 million units, as reported by OICA. Based on battery pack size assumptions, the entire vehicle fleet requires 112 TWh of batteries. However, autonomous technology may improve vehicle utilization rates, potentially reducing the global fleet and required annual production.
Cathode allocation for vehicles allows low-energy-density chemistry (LFP) for standard-range vehicles, while high-energy-density chemistry (high-nickel) is required for long-range vehicles. Specifically, this includes currently manufactured low-to-zero cobalt nickel manganese cathodes, high-nickel cathodes used by Tesla and its suppliers, and those under development in research groups.
To electrify the marine fleet, with an annual demand of 2.1 PWh, if ships charge an average of approximately 70 times each to 75% capacity, 40 TWh of batteries are needed. In this case, the assumption is that 33% of the fleet requires high-density nickel and manganese-based cathodes, while 67% requires only low-energy-density LFP cathodes.
For aviation, if 20% of a narrow-body fleet of approximately 15,000 aircraft is electrified with 7 MWh packs, 0.02 TWh of batteries would be required. These are conservative estimates and the required number of batteries may be lower.
[Table 8: Classification of electric ships and aircraft fleets]
Global Model Results — Electrification and Transportation Batteries
Table 9 shows the generation and storage portfolio to meet global electricity demand, and batteries for transportation. Battery capacity required for vehicles, ships, and aircraft is calculated based on respective assumptions. For an explanation of how the generation and storage portfolio is ultimately allocated, see the appendix "Allocating Generation and Storage to End Uses."
[Table 9: Generation and Storage Portfolio
[Table 9: Generation and Storage Portfolio to Meet Global Electricity Demand, and Transportation Batteries]
Vehicle and stationary batteries (TWh)
[Table 11: Solar and wind waterfall]
Investments listed here include mining and refining operations for materials requiring significant scale-up, hydrogen storage salt cavern installation, and manufacturing facilities. Manufacturing facilities are sized according to the replacement rate of each asset, and upstream operations (e.g., mining) are sized accordingly.
Materials requiring significant capacity expansion include:
Mining: Nickel, lithium, graphite, copper
Refining: Nickel, lithium, graphite, cobalt, copper, battery-grade iron and manganese
In addition to initial investment, maintenance investment of 5%/year over a 20-year horizon is included in the investment estimate. Based on these assumptions, the manufacturing infrastructure cost for building a sustainable energy economy is $10 trillion—compared to $14 trillion in projected fossil fuel expenditure over 20 years based on 2022 investment levels.
Table 13 provides additional information on assumptions for mining, refining, vehicle factories, battery factories, and recycling. Mining and refining assumptions are internal estimates based on industry averages from publicly available industry reports.
[Table 13C: Additional investment assumption details]
[Table 13D: Additional investment assumption details]
Land area required for solar power generation is based on an empirical assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which found a median power density of 2.8 acres/MWdc for fixed-tilt systems installed from 2011 to 2019, which converts to approximately 3.9 acres/MWac. Therefore, the global 18.3 TW solar panel fleet would require approximately 7.14 million acres, or 0.19% of total global land area. Wind land area requirements are based on a study by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory showing direct land use of 0.75 acres/MW. Therefore, the global wind turbine fleet of 12.2 TW would require approximately 9.2 million acres, or 0.02% of total land area.
[Table 14: Direct solar and wind power land area by continent]
Required material intensity is used to calculate total required materials for solar panels, wind turbines, and circuit miles based on third-party intensity assumptions. Battery material intensity is based on internal estimates. Material intensity assumptions for solar panels and wind turbines were sourced from a European Commission report. Wind turbines do not contain rare earth minerals.
According to IEA's Net Zero Pathways to 2050 study, achieving a fully sustainable electrified global economy requires approximately 60 million circuit miles to be added or rewired globally. Distribution capacity is expanded primarily by rewiring existing lines and expanding substation capacity to accommodate significant increases in peak and average end-user demand. High-voltage transmission primarily expands geographic reach to connect large-scale wind and solar capacity to densely populated areas. To estimate material requirements, 90% of the 60 million circuit miles are assumed to be rewiring of existing low-voltage distribution systems, and 10% are new circuit miles from high-voltage transmission—the same ratio as the current U.S. circuit mile ratio of high-voltage transmission to low-voltage distribution.
[Table 15: Generation Materials: Tons per GW]
[Table 15: Generation Materials: Tons per GW]
[Table 16: Battery Materials: kg per kWh]
Based on the above assumptions, the total required for 30 TW of generation, 240 TWh of battery storage, and 60 million miles of transmission is 1,281.5 billion tons (44.4 billion tons per year).
Required material intensity is calculated based on third-party intensity assumptions across solar panels, wind turbines, and circuit miles. Battery material intensity is based on internal estimates. Material intensity assumptions for solar panels and wind turbines were sourced from a European Commission report. However, wind turbines do not contain rare earth minerals.
According to the IEA's Net Zero Pathways to 2050 study, achieving a fully sustainable electrified global economy requires approximately 60 million circuit miles to be added or rewired globally. Distribution capacity is expanded primarily by rewiring existing lines and expanding substation capacity to accommodate significant increases in peak and average end-user demand. High-voltage transmission is achieved primarily by expanding geographic reach to connect large-scale wind and solar capacity to densely populated areas. To estimate material requirements, 90% of the 60 million circuit miles are assumed to be rewiring of existing low-voltage distribution systems, and 10% are new circuit miles from high-voltage transmission—the same ratio as the current U.S. circuit mile ratio of high-voltage transmission to low-voltage distribution.
Total material requirements in Table 18 are compared against USGS 2023 resource estimates to assess whether there are fundamental material constraints to achieving a sustainable energy economy. However, since USGS does not publish silver resource estimates, reserve resources are used instead. Analysis shows that the amount of silver required for solar panels corresponds to 13% of USGS 2023 silver reserves, but cheaper and more abundant copper can be used as an alternative. Graphite demand can be met by both natural and synthetic graphite. Furthermore, since synthetic graphite production uses petroleum products, graphite resources will not become a constraint if only a small fraction of petroleum resources are used.
However, to achieve a sustainable energy economy, annual mining, concentration, and refining of relevant metal ores must increase. The largest constraints are human capital and permitting/regulatory timelines. In conclusion, relative to USGS 2023 estimated resources, there are no fundamental material constraints. Furthermore, when minerals are in demand, there is an incentive to search for them, and mineral discoveries tend to increase accordingly.
Materials required to build 30 TW of generation, 240 TWh of storage, and 60 million miles of conductors relative to USGS 2023 estimated resources
[Figure 17: Required materials relative to USGS 2023 estimated resources]
Global Mineral Reserve/Resource Base — Correcting Public Perception
[Figure 18: Global Mineral Reserve/Resource Base — Correcting Public Perception]
Achieving a sustainable energy economy requires significantly increased demand for key raw materials, but demand will stabilize once manufacturing facilities are in place. In the 2040s, as batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines reach end-of-life, valuable materials will be reused and recycled, reducing demand for key raw materials. While mining demand decreases, refining capacity remains unchanged, so key raw material demand constraints may emerge in the future.
[Figure 20: Illustrative impact of recycling on process flow assuming 80% critical material recovery rate]
[Figure 19: Illustrative impact of recycling on process flow assuming 80% critical material recovery rate]
Through the Actions Described in This Paper
Through the actions described in this paper, it is possible to achieve a fully electrified, sustainable economy.
Switch homes, businesses, and industry to heat pumps
Modeling shows that an electrified, sustainable future is technically feasible and requires less investment and less material extraction than continuing today's unsustainable energy economy.
[Figure 2: Estimates of resources and investment required for Master Plan 3]
Appendix: Allocating Generation and Storage to End Uses
This analysis calculates the amount of wind and solar generation and storage needed to achieve a sustainable energy economy at the system level—that is, the generation and storage needed for all end users to electrify. However, it does not calculate the generation and storage needed for each end user individually.
Instead, hourly demand profiles and the match rate of surplus wind and solar generation are used to calculate the generation and storage capacity needed for each end user. For example, if 12% of annual wind generation aligns with EV charging demand, then 12% of the 15.2 TW of wind required by the model output—approximately 1.9 TW—is allocated to EV charging. Similarly, storage capacity is also allocated to each end user.
This method provides an indication of how much each end user affects overall wind and solar generation and storage requirements. Since the demands of each end user are interrelated, they cannot be fully separated.
Manufacturing batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines in a sustainable energy economy itself requires 4 PWh/year of sustainable electricity. The energy density of manufacturing is estimated as shown in the figures below.
[Table 20: Annual energy density of wind turbine and solar panel production]
[Table 21: Annual energy density of battery production]
Tesla Master Plan Part 3
https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf
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