SXSW Report: The Future of Hollywood — Jake Johnson on the Realities of the Streaming Era

Hello, I'm Ryuta Hamamoto from TIMEWELL Inc.

Hollywood is at a historic turning point. The rise of streaming services is fundamentally reshaping how films and television are produced and distributed. At SXSW, actor and filmmaker Jake Johnson — best known for New Girl — took the stage to speak candidly about the future of Hollywood.

This article covers the session highlights while also examining the outcomes of the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes and the changes they brought to the entertainment industry.

Session Overview: Jake Johnson on Hollywood Today

Who Is Jake Johnson?

Item	Details
Full name	Mark Jake Johnson
Notable work	New Girl (2011–2018, as Nick Miller)
Directorial debut	Self Reliance (2023, world premiere at SXSW)
Voice acting	Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (as Peter B. Parker)

Jake Johnson played Nick Miller in Fox's hit sitcom New Girl and earned a Critics' Choice Television Award nomination for Best Actor in a Comedy Series in 2013. In 2023, he premiered his feature directorial debut, Self Reliance, at SXSW, showcasing his range as an actor, director, and screenwriter.

Key Topics in the Session

In conversation with Cynthia Littleton of Variety, the session covered:

Contract negotiations between Hollywood's creative guilds (WGA, DGA) and major studios
Fair compensation in an era where streaming has changed everything
Creative independence and self-expression
The issue of streaming residuals for the cast of New Girl

WGA and DGA Contract Negotiations: The Tension Behind the Scenes

At the time of the session, Hollywood's WGA (Writers Guild of America) and DGA (Directors Guild of America) were in an increasingly tense standoff with major studios over contract negotiations.

Why Negotiations Were Reaching a Boiling Point

Issue	Creators' Position	Studios' Position
Streaming residuals	Fair pay based on viewership	Maintain existing flat payments
Mini-rooms (small writers' teams)	Ensure adequate staff and duration	Minimize to reduce costs
AI restrictions	Ban AI-generated scripts	Use AI as a production tool
Data transparency	Demand disclosure of viewership data	Keep as proprietary information

As streaming platforms surged in scale, revenue models had shifted dramatically from traditional broadcast TV and theatrical releases. Yet creator compensation structures had not kept pace, and a sense of unfairness had been building.

Johnson's Candid Perspective

Drawing on his membership in multiple guilds, including the WGA and DGA, Johnson spoke honestly: "Nobody wants to stop working." A strike is a last resort — something everyone hopes to avoid. But his conviction that "we have to make a fair deal" was unwavering.

The 2023 Hollywood Strikes: A Historic Turning Point

The concerns raised in the session soon became reality. In 2023, Hollywood experienced a historic dual strike.

Timeline

Date	Event
May 2, 2023	WGA (Writers Guild of America) strike begins
July 14, 2023	SAG-AFTRA (actors' union) joins the strike
September 27, 2023	WGA strike ends (148 days)
October 9, 2023	New WGA contract ratified with 99% approval
November 9, 2023	SAG-AFTRA strike ends (118 days)

The WGA strike lasted 148 days; SAG-AFTRA's lasted 118 days. Both unions striking simultaneously had not happened since 1960 — an unprecedented moment in Hollywood history.

Key Points of the Agreements

Improved Streaming Residuals

The new WGA contract secured significant increases in domestic and foreign residuals for streaming content. Foreign residuals for the largest streaming services are projected to increase by 76% over three years.

An entirely new "streaming success bonus" was also introduced: projects in which more than 20% of a service's domestic subscribers watch a program within its first 90 days will trigger additional payments.

AI Regulations

One of the most closely watched outcomes of the strikes was the introduction of AI-specific provisions.

AI cannot rewrite scripts: AI-generated material does not qualify as "original material" under the contract
AI cannot be used to reduce writing staff: Credits and compensation cannot be cut on AI grounds
Restrictions on using scripts as AI training data: Writers' works cannot be used to train AI systems
Digital likeness protections: Rules governing AI-generated digital replicas of actors' appearances and voices

The Brookings Institution called the agreement "an important victory for all workers." It was recognized worldwide as the first case where workers used collective bargaining to place real limits on AI's encroachment into creative work.

Greater Data Transparency

Streaming platforms are now required to share viewership data with creators, giving them the information they need to understand how their work is being consumed and negotiate for fair compensation.

The Streaming Residuals Problem: The New Girl Case

During the session, Johnson also addressed the streaming residuals issue facing the cast of New Girl.

Traditional TV vs. Streaming Residuals

Item	Traditional TV	Streaming
Reruns	Payment per broadcast	Fixed lump sum
Viewership data	Published as ratings	Undisclosed (improving)
International distribution	Payment per country	Flat all-in payment
Long-term income	Stable for hit shows	Initial payment only

New Girl continues to attract consistent audiences on Netflix and other streaming platforms, but Johnson noted that streaming residuals for the cast are significantly lower than what traditional TV reruns would have paid.

This situation illustrates why building fair compensation structures for creators in the streaming era is so important.

Creative Independence and Self-Expression: The Self Reliance Challenge

The session also gave Johnson space to discuss his directorial debut, Self Reliance.

Why He Directed It Himself

Johnson spoke about the significance of creating a project entirely on his own terms, without relying on the major studio system. He described the film as "Jacob's Ladder with comedy added" — the kind of work that's difficult to realize within the constraints of traditional Hollywood, brought to life through an independent production approach.

The Potential of Independent Film

SXSW has long been celebrated as a festival for independent cinema, and there's a growing trend of films that raised funds through Kickstarter premiering at the event. Creators now have more diverse ways to bring their work to audiences directly, without going through major studios.

The Entertainment Industry in 2026: New Challenges in the Age of AI

The 2023 strikes concluded, but the challenges facing the entertainment industry continue to evolve.

Rapid Advancement in AI Technology

While the strike agreements placed some limits on AI use, technological development has not slowed. As of 2026, new challenges have emerged:

More powerful generative AI: The quality of generated text, images, and video has improved dramatically
AI voice replication: The accuracy of technology that replicates actors' voices has increased
Automated script generation: AI can now generate plots and dialogue at a certain level of quality
Renegotiation ahead: As the three-year contracts approach their expiration (2026), discussions about renegotiation are beginning

Restructuring the Streaming Market

The streaming market itself is also undergoing significant change:

Revenue model shifts: Migration from pure subscriptions to ad-supported tiers
Production budget reassessments: Moving away from blockbuster-only spending toward leaner production
Accelerated global expansion: Increased investment in local content in each market
Live content emphasis: Intensifying competition for sports and live event streaming rights

Creator Rights and AI: Lessons for Japan's Content Industry

The Hollywood story carries important lessons for Japan's content industry as well.

What Japan Can Learn

Establishing rules around AI use: Building a framework that protects creator rights while enabling AI adoption
Data transparency: Creating mechanisms to share content consumption data with creators
Fair compensation structures: Designing appropriate royalty models for the subscription era
The power of collective bargaining: Individual creators have limited leverage in negotiations

The WARP AI Consulting Perspective

TIMEWELL's AI consulting service WARP provides consulting on how AI adoption and human creativity can coexist. Across every industry where AI deployment is accelerating, determining "what to entrust to AI and what humans should own" has become a critical management question. WARP works alongside companies — with monthly engagements led by former DX and data strategy specialists from leading firms — to develop AI adoption strategies tailored to each business.

The Future of Content Creation: Technology and Creativity Coexisting

What Hollywood's strikes demonstrated is that while technological progress can threaten creator rights, appropriate negotiation and regulation can make coexistence possible.

The Positive Changes Technology Brings

Lower production costs: Independent creators can now produce high-quality work more affordably
Global distribution: Reach audiences anywhere in the world
AI-powered efficiency: Offload administrative tasks to AI and focus on creative work
New forms of expression: New storytelling possibilities through VR, AR, and AI

What Matters Most Is Keeping People at the Center

The spirit of "making a fair deal" that Johnson spoke about in the session remains essential, no matter how technology advances. AI is ultimately a tool — it cannot replace the human emotions and experiences at the heart of any story.

Summary

Key takeaways from the SXSW session "The Future of Hollywood" and the events that followed:

Creator compensation had not kept pace with the streaming era — the WGA/SAG-AFTRA strikes were a historic effort to correct that
The 2023 strikes produced the world's first AI regulatory provisions in entertainment contracts — prohibiting AI from rewriting scripts set a global precedent
Streaming residuals are projected to increase by 76% — improved data transparency was another major win
Jake Johnson demonstrated a viable path through independent production — there is a route that doesn't depend on major studios
AI advances in 2026 are generating new challenges — renegotiation of the three-year contracts is in the spotlight
Japan's content industry urgently needs AI usage rules — there is much to learn from Hollywood's experience
The coexistence of technology and creativity is the central challenge for the entertainment industry going forward

Technological progress cannot be stopped, but how it is used is a human decision. Protecting creator rights while harnessing new technologies like AI to produce richer content — that balance, perhaps, is what will determine the future of the entertainment industry.