What Is the "National Intelligence Agency" That Has Been All Over the News?

Hello, this is Hamamoto from TIMEWELL.

…That is how I usually start, but today I want to take a slightly different approach. The "National Intelligence Agency" — an organization that has been appearing frequently in the news — are you familiar with it? This is not the plot of a spy film. It is an entirely real development unfolding in Japan right now, in 2026.

What Is the "National Intelligence Agency" That Has Been All Over the News?

When you hear "National Intelligence Agency," you might picture James Bond's secret headquarters or a command room lined with high-tech equipment. That is not entirely wrong, but the organization that Japan is in the process of establishing during fiscal 2026 is a somewhat more grounded entity.

Put simply, it will be the command center for Japan's intelligence — its information activities [1].

Japan already has several organizations that gather information: the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office, known as the "Naicho," along with the National Police Agency, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, and the Public Security Intelligence Agency [2]. Each operates within its own domain. The problem is that the information gathered does not circulate well between them. The walls between ministries and agencies prevent anyone from seeing the full picture. This is the classic dysfunction of organizational silos.

Cyberattacks, international terrorism, the spread of disinformation, economic security. Modern threats are not simple enough to be addressed by a single ministry alone. What is needed is a brain that can consolidate dispersed information in one place, have specialists analyze it, and support the Prime Minister in making accurate decisions. That is the role the National Intelligence Agency will fill.

It will be established through an upgrade and reorganization of the Naicho within the Cabinet Secretariat. The government has indicated a policy of strengthening cooperation with overseas intelligence agencies such as the U.S. CIA and the UK's MI6, to a degree beyond what currently exists [3].

How the Ukraine Invasion Changed the World — Japan's National Security "Before" and "After"

Why is it necessary to create a new intelligence agency now? That is a fair question. But on February 24, 2022, the world changed decisively.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This was not merely a military conflict. The world was forced to witness the reality of hybrid warfare — a form where information, economics, and cyberspace operate as a unified system.

One of the greatest lessons the war drove home was the overwhelming importance of intelligence [9].

Before the Ukraine invasion, U.S. intelligence agencies had predicted Russia's invasion plan with remarkable accuracy. By autumn 2021, they already had a detailed picture of Russian military movements and were issuing warnings to European countries. The U.S. took the unusual step of strategically making certain intelligence public, preemptively neutralizing Russia's prepared false flag operations — attacks designed to be blamed on Ukraine — before they could be executed. The era had arrived in which information is not merely a secret but a strategic weapon.

How did Japan compare?

Japan had long maintained the custom of holding defense spending to 1% of GDP and operated under the principle of exclusively defensive defense. Exports of defense equipment were strictly restricted, and the intelligence framework centered on the Naicho was a small-scale operation. The very concept of economic security was still in the early stages of debate. Honestly, from the perspective of information warfare, Japan was several laps behind.

But as awareness spread that "what happened in Ukraine today could happen in East Asia tomorrow," Japan was compelled to make a dramatic shift in its security policy. Growing concerns about a Taiwan contingency made it painfully clear that the lack of centralized information management and analytical capability could become a fatal weakness undermining the nation's very survival.

From the Three Security Documents to the National Intelligence Agency: A Rapid Policy Transformation

After the Ukraine invasion, Japan rapidly redirected its security policy.

The symbol of this shift is the Three Security Documents adopted by the Cabinet in December 2022 [10]: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Plan. They explicitly stated the possession of counter-attack capability, and set a target of raising defense spending to 2% of GDP by fiscal 2027. This was a historic turning point in postwar Japan's defense policy. 43 trillion yen over five years. That figure alone conveys how seriously Japan is committed to rebuilding its security architecture.

Movement has also accelerated on the economic front. The Economic Security Promotion Act was enacted in May 2022, legally positioning supply chain resilience, security of critical infrastructure, and public-private cooperation on advanced technology [11]. In December 2023, the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment were revised, partially lifting restrictions on the export of lethal weapons [12].

Timing	Event	Security significance
February 2022	Russia's invasion of Ukraine	Exposed the reality of information warfare and hybrid warfare to the world
May 2022	Enactment of the Economic Security Promotion Act	Legal framework for protecting supply chains and advanced technology
December 2022	Cabinet adoption of the Three Security Documents	GDP 2% defense spending, explicit statement of counter-attack capability
December 2023	Revision of the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment	Partial lifting of restrictions on lethal weapons exports
December 2025	Decision to establish the National Intelligence Agency	Intelligence command center to be established
During fiscal 2026	Scheduled establishment of the National Intelligence Agency	Framework for centralized information management and analysis

The establishment of the National Intelligence Agency is positioned as the culmination of this sequence of changes. Centrally consolidating and analyzing dispersed information to support policy decision-making. Japan is finally about to acquire the brain it needs to survive the age of information warfare.

The Birth of Japan's CIA? Comparing It to Intelligence Agencies Around the World

"Command center" might evoke images of a spy organization with vast powers. But the National Intelligence Agency will have a different character from the U.S. CIA or FBI.

In most democracies, the roles of intelligence agencies are broadly divided into two. One is an external intelligence agency that collects information abroad — the U.S. CIA and UK's MI6 fall into this category. The other is a domestic security and counterintelligence agency that maintains domestic order and monitors foreign spies — the U.S. FBI and UK's MI5 are the prime examples.

Concentrating power in a single organization risks threatening citizens' freedoms and privacy — which is why the functions are separated. So which kind is Japan's National Intelligence Agency?

The answer is neither.

At the time of its establishment, the National Intelligence Agency is expected to function primarily as an analytical body — consolidating and analyzing information coming in from other intelligence agencies and supporting policy decision-making — rather than conducting intelligence operations itself [5]. It will not operate its own overseas sources like the CIA, nor exercise domestic investigative powers like the FBI. It is an integrating coordinator for information from the various ministries and agencies. This is why it is described as being neither a Japanese CIA nor a Japanese FBI.

Country	External intelligence	Domestic security/counterintelligence	Signals intelligence/analysis	Command center/coordination
Japan (planned)	Foreign Intelligence Agency (planned for future establishment)	National Police Agency, Public Security Intelligence Agency	TBD	National Intelligence Agency
United States	CIA	FBI	NSA	ODNI
United Kingdom	MI6/SIS	MI5	GCHQ	Joint Intelligence Committee
Israel	Mossad	Shin Bet	Unit 8200	None

The story does not end there. The policy platform of Prime Minister Takaichi and the coalition agreement between the LDP and Nippon Ishin no Kai include plans to establish a CIA-type external intelligence agency by the end of 2027, and the enactment of an anti-espionage law [6]. The National Intelligence Agency is merely the first step in a fundamental restructuring of Japan's entire intelligence apparatus.

There Are Valid Concerns

While expectations are building around the establishment of the National Intelligence Agency, concerns have also been raised.

The most deep-rooted is the fear that surveillance of citizens will be strengthened. Japan has a history in which the prewar Special Higher Police and the military police strictly controlled citizens' thoughts and speech, and suppressed those who opposed the war [7]. This memory remains in society. The concern that a new intelligence agency might encroach on privacy and freedom of expression is not, I think, misplaced.

If an anti-espionage law is enacted, the question of what will be defined as espionage activity becomes critical. If the lines are drawn ambiguously, activities critical of the government or legitimate journalism could come within the scope of regulation. The government explains that the target is foreign espionage activity, but without mechanisms to prevent operational abuse, explanations alone do not provide reassurance. How much parliamentary oversight and judicial checks can be strengthened will determine the credibility of this framework.

There are also organizational challenges. Can the silo mentality that has entrenched itself across ministries over many years really be overcome simply by hanging a new sign? Unless the National Intelligence Agency has legally backed information access rights vis-à-vis the various ministries, the result will ultimately be nothing more than a name change [8]. The government is coordinating toward explicitly stating information access rights in the related legislation, but how effectively this will function in practice remains to be seen.

A Brain to Protect the National Interest, and What Companies Need to Do on Economic Security

The establishment of the National Intelligence Agency is an unavoidable move within the dramatic shift in security policy following the Ukraine invasion. In an increasingly complex international environment, acquiring the analytical brain needed to protect the national interest based on accurate information — Japan is finally about to obtain the weapon it needs to survive the era of information warfare.

As a side note: this shift in the security environment does not stop at the national level. It has direct implications for corporate activities as well.

From an economic security perspective, the importance of export control has risen dramatically. China's export restrictions on rare earths and critical minerals. In February 2026, 20 Japanese companies and organizations were added to China's list of entities subject to export controls on dual-use items [13] [14]. International supply chains are constantly exposed to risk. That is the reality of the present moment.

In this environment, companies must more rigorously than ever screen whether their counterparties carry national security risks and whether they are exposed to export control violations. But this screening work is complex and requires specialized knowledge. It is not unusual for a single case to take two to three hours, creating a significant burden for many companies.

That is where AI-powered export management solutions are attracting attention. TRAFEED (formerly ZEROCK ExCHECK) from TIMEWELL automates the background verification in export control with AI, making a counterparty's concern level visible in as little as five seconds [15].

Compatible with METI's standard formats, it offers automatic matching against regulatory sanctions lists and a chain-check function that traces shareholders and related companies of the counterparty. It employs a multi-LLM consensus method with cross-checks by three AI models — Claude, GPT, and Gemini — and explicitly shows the reasoning and source URLs, providing powerful support for human final judgment. Joint verification has been completed with Okayama University, and the system was also presented at a seminar co-hosted by METI and MEXT in January 2026.

As the National Intelligence Agency begins to function as the brain protecting Japan's national interests, companies are also required to adapt to the changing security environment. If the government builds the intelligence command center, companies build their own compliance frameworks. Both wheels need to mesh for Japan's economic security to function properly. That is how I see it.

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References

[1] Nikkei. (December 4, 2025). National Intelligence Agency to be newly established during fiscal 2026 — Government and ruling coalition policy for intelligence strengthening. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA036HS0T01C25A2000000/

[2] Cabinet Secretariat. The role of the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office as the Cabinet's intelligence agency. https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/gaiyou/jimu/jyouhoutyousa/yakuwari.html

[3] JAPAN Forward. (January 14, 2026). Framework of National Intelligence Agency revealed; cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies to be strengthened; intelligence council to consist of 11 ministers. https://japan-forward.com/ja/long-awaited-intelligence-agency-takes-shape/

[4] Business+IT. (February 12, 2026). The soon-to-be-established "National Intelligence Agency" — Why it can be said to be neither a Japanese "CIA" nor "FBI." https://www.sbbit.jp/article/cont1/179958

[5] Courrier Japon. (November 22, 2025). Is a "National Intelligence Agency" necessary under the Takaichi administration? Comparing Japan with South Korea, which has a powerful "intelligence agency." https://courrier.jp/columns/422819/

[6] Shimbun Akahata. (February 23, 2026). "National Intelligence Agency" legislation — A command center for civilian surveillance toward a war state. https://www.jcp.or.jp/akahata/aik25/2026-02-23/2026022302_01_0.php

[7] Ibid.

[8] Sankei News. (January 7, 2026). "National Intelligence Agency" to have information access rights to ministries and agencies — The intelligence command center ... to be stipulated in related legislation. https://www.sankei.com/article/20260107-NAZVJT7BBRKRLD2GLFIR6LHW3A/

[9] Tadayoshi Shigeta. (July 2023). Lessons of the Ukraine War — Direction for Strengthening Japan's Intelligence (National Police Policy Academy Materials No. 125). https://shigetatadayoshi.com/

[10] Ministry of Defense. (December 2022). National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, Defense Buildup Plan. https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/index.html

[11] Cabinet Office. About the Economic Security Promotion Act. https://www.cao.go.jp/keizai_anzen_hosho/index.html

[12] Nikkei. (December 22, 2023). Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment revised; lethal weapons exports partially lifted. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA223400S3A221C2000000/

[13] METI. Security Trade Control. https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/anpo/

[14] Nikkei. (February 24, 2026). China's export controls affect Japan's growth strategy and science and technology plans. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA246280U6A220C2000000/

[15] TIMEWELL Inc. TRAFEED (formerly ZEROCK ExCHECK) AI Export Control Agent. https://timewell.jp/trafeed